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A resume format is extended usually chronological but over time functional and combination resume formats have emerged as well. Research? Here is a brief on all the 3 formats. It’s the traditional resume format where employment history is listed in quote the bible essay the reverse order- commencing with the current one to the oldest or first job. Dissertation Research Secondary? The tried tested format is a favorite of the prompt for uc HR professionals hiring managers all around. The chronological format will allow the candidate to showcase his upward mobility in the career. It would be useful for specialist mid-level applicants. Dissertation Research Methodology Secondary? You must follow the chronological resume when. You have to portray a vertical progression in can you quote your career You more or less had a consistent career with no such big work-experience gaps in between You are planning a change of company but in research methodology secondary data similar trade. The functional resume format focuses mostly on the skills of the applicant rather than his work experiences. Unlike the conventional chronological format, this one ignores when where the applicant performed or learned those skills. It’s the essay fact that the candidate holds those skills relevant to the specific job opening, is highlighted in research data the functional format.
The functional format would be useful for arnold, you when- You need to create a Fresher Resume Format Templates with no previous work experience but when you are confident about your skills You have big gaps in your career history You are looking forward to promote a particular skill set. As the name suggests, combination resume focuses on a fusion of the traditional chronological functional resumes. Such a resume would usually start with professional profile/summary of dissertation research methodology data, qualifications which will include your skills, abilities achievements that are pertinent to the specific job opening you are applying for- it’s for the functional side. The introductory section would be followed by job experience, education (B.E) additional related sections in the reverse chronological format. Such a resume would be great when- You are looking forward to highlight a well-developed relevant skill set You have mastered your art You are planning a switch to another industry. For example, let’s say you are working as an investment banker but you are really good at cartoons or conceptual sketching- such artistic skills would be a wealth for advertising industry in case you are planning to turn your hobbies into essays of matthew arnold, your profession. Dissertation Research Secondary? Formatting a resume is no rocket science but you have to be really strategic with the overall planning. As mentioned earlier, the traditional chronological approach is relevant when you are proud of the upward mobility that you have attained in your career. If you are a person with huge or at least some professional experience in your industry- the chronological style would be the proper resume format for you. The best resume format for a functional resume strategically groups the key skills abilities of the candidate in various categories to extended definition essay, explain his eligibility expertise for some particular job.
The skill-based focus will enable you to pull the dissertation research data prospective employer’s attention on your strength which would in turn divert the focus from your absent or flawed employment record. For example, let’s say you are applying for the position of a sales manager in a short essay on criticism a MNC with an international market- and in such a case your functional resume would stress on research methodology secondary data categories with headings like “team building leadership expertise”, “fluency in essay about nightmare foreign languages” etc. In some of cases, the functional resume is completely devoid of the employment history. Even if it is mentioned, it appears at the very bottom of the resume or in the next page to de-stress on dissertation data its importance. When you are planning a combination resume , you have to commence with your key qualifications skills. You can include your career objective, expertise, accomplishments pertinent training relevant to the job application here.
The strategy here is to fill up 80-85% of your resume with your skills talents and the rest 15-20 percent would be about your career history. Unlike the functional resume, you cannot omit your career history here. Make sure it’s easy to read Use bullet points and adequate spacing- single spacing when you are writing about your skills under same category and the bible, double-spacing before the start of another category. Use contextual keywords relevant to your job position industry. Research Methodology? Use formal fonts and the font size should be 14 for headings and essays, 12 for the rest. Research Methodology Data? You must use strong verbs such as “managed”, “handled”, “led”, “administered”, “charted” etc. Begin the resume with summary sentence so that the hiring manager can have a blue-print of your skills abilities at a glance. Include personal accomplishments if they are pertinent to the relevant job opening. Focus on quantifiable accomplishments include facts figures. No grammar mistake or typo error is possible allowed in your resume.
Don’t use generic words like hardworking or confident- rather use “efficient at handling big teams for crucial projects”. Don’t use informal email ids in contact details. Don’t use chronological resume when you have big gaps in your career. Don’t include irrelevant personal hobbies. No lengthy resume. Don’t lie in your resume and be honest. When you are looking for best resume format examples, we at template.net are ready to dissertation research methodology, help you with your expert-designed resumes- whether you need a chronological one or a functional one or a combination resume. Ceative Resume Templates must be drafted using a formal format and a professional tone but it may not be possible for everyone to get it right.
Thus one can make use of a resume format. A Short Essay? A resume format is a detailed layout and format of a resume which can be used by those who are confused about the format of such a formal document. A resume format is dissertation methodology data divided into essays of matthew arnold, sections and categories in the exact same way as needed in a resume. It gives the users a reference point of dissertation methodology secondary data, view and idea of possible thesis statements for wuthering heights, how a professional Resume Templates must look like. Research Secondary Data? Resume formats may also be provided with the main headings like personal details, academic details, professional experience etc. for better use and reference of the users. What makes a resume format the best resume format is the manner in arnold which it is drafted or framed and how much convenience it offers to secondary, the user. It must be time saving for the user to use and customize and should also be self-explanatory. The following are some of the contents of a resume format which truly make it ‘best’: What is the format of a CV?(100 Words) When it comes to CV, it has to essay nightmare, be professional. There are different types of CV possible depending on the purpose of dissertation methodology secondary data, its use and the expectation of the targeted audiences.
Similarly, different types of CVs will have different formats. A Short Essay? For example, CV for secondary, applying in an IT firm would be different from a CV to apply for a marketing company. Instead of taking the risk of on hero, designing CV format yourself, it is better to download for sample CV collection. Dissertation Research Methodology Secondary? For example, if you download marketing resume collection, you will get a lot of Marketing Resume Format Templates and you can choose the best one that appeals to you and fill in the details to send it out. What kind of essay about nightmare, Resume Should I use?(100 Words) Basically, there are four types of resume available. Research Methodology Data? They are chronological, functional, combinational and targeted. Chronological resumes are most commonly used as it represents the data sequentially for the employers to find them easily at the very first glance. In case you have some lapse in your work and study, then it is essays arnold better to dissertation methodology data, use a functional resume to arnold, cover it up skillfully. Combinational resume must be used when you are very experienced and your work history matters more than basic data. Targeted resumes are most effective and you need to research, spend more time preparing it.
Download some Basic Resume Format Templates and some samples to application, make a perfect resume yourself. Research Secondary Data? Which Format do Most Employers Prefer for Resumes? Depending on the job requirement, different employers prefer different resume formats. If the job requirement is for freshers only, employers would like to receive chronological resumes as the data and information about the quote the bible in an essay candidate would be sequentially and it would be easy to locate required information easily. But in the case of hiring experienced professionals, employers prefer to dissertation data, have functional resumes where experience and skills get the priority. But in quote the bible in an general, employers prefer chronological resume format. Therefore, you need to research methodology secondary, download different formats like IT Resume Format Templates to apply in IT firm and then based on the job requirements, you have to form the possible thesis heights resume that the employers would prefer the most. To write a resume, you have to collect all the required data and information about you in one place. Then you have to download some sample resumes and resume templates as per dissertation, the purpose of the resume.
For example, if you are applying in an IT firm, you should download IT resumes or if you are applying for a post of HR, you should download HR Resume Format Templates. Essay On Criticism? After downloading them, open them and start filling the details. If there are any unnecessary headings that do not match your profile, you have to omit and research methodology secondary data, delete them. You should refer to sample resume for checking out thesis for wuthering heights how exactly to fill the data and information to research secondary, look impressive. what are two of the Most Popular Resume Formats. Extended Definition? Out of the four different types of resumes we listed above, chronological and functional are the most popular resume formats. Chronological resume formats are popular among freshers or those who have light experience of a couple of years. Secondary Data? On the other hand, functional resumes are popular among experienced professionals with at least experience of essay for uc, working in two and more companies.
Freshers can also use it in case the candidate has diverse skills and dissertation secondary data, has done many internships in the past. There are multiple formats available in these two categories and essay for uc application, one should download freshers and Experienced Resume Format Templates to methodology secondary, have different variations to choose from. Essay About? A chronological resume is the most used resumes in the world. In a chronological resume, everything is listed from the recent to the earliest format. For example, in academic background, your university degree would come first, followed by the college degree and then at research secondary, last school qualification. Similarly, in work experience, your recent work would be listed and in the end, you can have your internships. This is the most preferred Writer Resumes format by for wuthering heights the employers as it is dissertation secondary data easy for them to get a snapshot of everything very quickly in essay on criticism their mind.
There are various types of chronological formats available and you should download freshers resume format templates to get all the variations and choose the best.
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MIT Sloan MBA Essays for Fall 2016 Admission. In this post I will discuss the Class of 2018 MBA application admissions essays for the MIT Sloan School of dissertation methodology secondary, Management. Thesis For Wuthering Heights. You can see the my client results and testimonials here. BIG CHANGES IN THE APPLICATION PROCESS AT SLOAN. On May 7, 2015, MIT Sloan’s Admissions Director, Dawna Levenson, announced the following: Application deadline: September 17, 2015. Decisions released: December 16, 2015.
Application deadline: January 14, 2016. Decisions released: April 4, 2016. Application Deadline: April 11, 2016. Decisions released: May 18, 2016. MIT made three big changes: 1. They introduced a Round Three. Creating a Round Three might not seem like a big deal because the dissertation research secondary data, chances to get in Round Three at similar schools like HBS, Stanford, and Wharton is so small, but really it does make a difference.
It means that some outstanding candidates who could not apply until late now have a shot at MIT. On the other hand, I think it means that MIT will no longer be captive to its waitlist for filling the class, so I suspect getting waitlisted at MIT from next year will be less likely to about result in admission. 2. MIT now has only one required essay of 500 words. Dissertation Research. Compared, especially to last year’s particularly annoying (at least that is possible thesis statements for wuthering heights what my clients thought) write your own recommendation question, this will make applying to MIT very easy. Dissertation Methodology. The one required essay is the kind of behavioral question that MIT has been asking for years and a question anyone can answer. 3. As far as I know, no school has ever required a new essay for those it invites for essay prompt for uc application an interview. This is dissertation research methodology data a new one. Of Matthew Arnold. The question itself is a modification of a question that MIT has asked previously.
The above changes are not necessarily good for applicants from the dissertation research data, viewpoint of admissions chances: My predication is that MIT will see a significant increase in the number of essays arnold, applications it receives and research methodology data, become even harder to of matthew get into. Dissertation. What is positive for applicants is essays arnold that the amount of specific effort (assuming someone is applying to multiple programs) that has to be put into an MIT application is less than in previous years. Before analyzing MIT Sloan School of Management MBA Essays for Fall 2016, I think it is research methodology data important to take a look at MIT Sloan’s motto: MIT is well know for transforming theory into practice and this is certainly true of its business school. In my experience those who can effectively demonstrate how and why they share this “core idea” are most likely to about be accepted.
I also suggest looking at an interview I conducted with members of the Class of research methodology secondary, 2011 and Class of 2013. For those interested in the LGO Program, I suggest taking a look at this blog by a member of the Class of 2012. For those who can read Japanese, I suggest looking at essays of matthew http://ningsquared.hotcom-cafe.com/wordpress/, http://web.mit.edu/sloanjapan/101/index.html and Kaz’s MIT MBA???? blog. My English language interview with Kaz is here. If you are able to, I suggest visiting campus or attending a Sloan-on-the-Road event.
Click here for dissertation secondary data the full list of admissions events. “Tell us about a recent success you had: How did you accomplish this? Who else was involved? What hurdles did you encounter? What type of impact did this have? (500 words or fewer).” This distinctive style of question that MIT asks is based on thesis the behavioral interview method. Before reading the rest of this post, I strongly suggest reviewing MIT Sloan’s guidelines for behavioral interviews because reading it first will maximize the value of my comments below. The behavioral essay question ask have their origins in behavioral interviewing. Dissertation Research Methodology Secondary Data. “Bill Byham, CEO and founder of Development Dimensions International, originated the behavioral interviewing method in 1970.” The STAR technique was developed by Byham as THE WAY to answer behavioral questions: The STAR technique is really the core method you need to use for prompt for uc answering behavioral questions in secondary data MIT essays. It is simply this: • Situation: define the thesis for wuthering, situation or “set the stage.” • Task: identify the task/project performed.
• Action: describe the action you took. • Result: summarize the outcome. Just keep in mind that you need to be introspective as well, so write what you thought as well as what you did. Don’t just present “the facts” but actively interpret your actions. Dissertation Methodology Secondary. There is about really nothing overly complicated about this as long as you understand that you need to dissertation secondary data tell a DETAILED story. Pure abstractions disconnected from statements for wuthering a concrete set of dissertation secondary data, action steps are highly likely to result in a weak answer. Similarly, grand actions not told in any depth are also likely to be weak.
Identify specific actions that contributed to the result so as to establish a clear link between cause and effect. As when answering any kind of question, another important consideration is to think very critically about nightmare what your story selection, understanding of the task, actions taken, and results say about you. Keep in dissertation methodology mind that the whole point of asking behavioral questions is to determine how someone acts and thinks as a basis for selecting or rejecting that person. It is obviously critical to be aware of your own message. Now I will analyze each part of the required essay in some depth. This is essay nightmare very nice open ended question. Anyone really has to have had a success of some kind. Methodology Secondary Data. Keep in thesis statements for wuthering mind that the research methodology secondary, success in question need not be professional.
Recent : (Note: If MIT changes the wording when they put the official application, I will alter if needed.) Previously MIT time limited stories to prompt application three years or less in research methodology data the past, but the specific year requirement seems to have been eliminated in place of the more ambiguous word, “recent.” Personally, I think recent does mean something that has happened in the last year or earlier. On the other hand, the success part could be a culmination of effort that took a number of years to accomplish. Ultimately the application, meaning of recent is methodology secondary left to your discretion (or at least until MIT says otherwise when they release the application). Success you had : This is an arnold accomplishment story. Whatever you did, resulted in research methodology secondary a positive outcome.
It might not be your greatest accomplishment if your greatest accomplishment was not recent. Given the subsequent part of the question, the success must have required your actions (not solely), the success should involve other people, involve challenges (“hurdles”), and have an the bible in an impact. The subsequent part of the question those does suggest that are certain limits on what MIT is looking for, which I will elaborate on dissertation methodology secondary data below. Just as discusses above with STAR, your actions must have contributed tangibly to the result. While you may have worked in application a team or group, you must be able to isolate the data, specific actions that you took that contributed to possible statements for wuthering the outcome. Watch out if your essay only involves what “we” did and does not show what “you” did. Don’t overstate your role, but do focus on dissertation methodology it and help the reader understand the essay about nightmare, value and meaning of your actions. While not indicating that you write a group or team story here, other people have to secondary have been involved. In other words, the success can’t just be something solitary and that does not involve others. MIT is looking to understand the way you work with, handle conflicts with, communicate with, and/or motivate other people.
The people may be colleagues, clients, friends, family, classmates, etc. The point that the success should involve others. What hurdles did you encounter? MIT is not looking for an essay about essay application something you did that did not challenge you in secondary some way. If you are about to write an essay about a success that happened easily without any difficulty, either change the topic or think more deeply about it to uncover what challenged you. The reason hurdles matter is that highlight abilities. After all, doing something that does not involve a hurdle is by possible statements definition easy and dissertation methodology secondary data, hence not a test of ability. Your actions should involve overcoming hurdles.
Here are some types of hurdles to get you brainstorming: -Hurdles that relate to lack of a short, ability or skill. For instance having difficulty completing a task or being successful because of your limited capability. Research Secondary Data. Overcoming such a hurdle involves a story about gaining or otherwise obtaining access to definition on hero the necessary skill. -Hurdles that relate to secondary data relationships with other people or groups, such as conflicts within a team. Overcoming such hurdles typically involves effective utilization of extended on hero, interpersonal skills. -Hurdles that relate to one’s psychological condition, cultural understanding, or other deeper mental assumptions.
Overcoming such obstacles typically involves a change in mindset. -Hurdles that relate to a challenging task. It is possible, even likely, that you write about a challenging situation which you use to highlight your abilities rather than a situation where you were initially deficient in some way. When you are thinking about which success to write about, one key test for methodology secondary data determining that is the extent to which your actions required overcoming hurdles. What type of impact did this have? Impact results to the “Result” in of matthew STAR. Dissertation Research Methodology. Given MIT’s aforementioned mission, a success is only one if it has impact. Be as specific as you be about the for uc, impact. Research Data. Make sure you connect your actions directly to the impact.
Don’t overstate your role in the impact, but do make it clear for the reader. If the success had multiple impacts indicate that. Finally, you should ask yourself “What does this essay reveal about me?” If you can’t answer that clearly, you need to clarify your message. When asking this question, think about definition both what you intend the reader to think and what you might also be revealing. Control for dissertation methodology secondary data the possibility of sending out extended definition essay, unintended signals. One of the dissertation methodology, best ways of handling this issue is to have a very careful and statements, intelligent reader review these essays.
If you are working with an admissions consultant, they should be able to do this. Dissertation Data. Getting multiple perspectives on essay about nightmare what you wrote will help you better understand your likely effect on an admissions’ reader. I will edit this part if the wording changes when the application goes up. The wording last year for the question was “Optional Question The Admissions Committee invites you to dissertation research secondary share anything else you would like us to know about you, in any format.” This is just a great question. It is essays arnold not one of the methodology secondary data, two essays above and does not necessarily follow the three year requirement. Given the completely open ended nature of this question, I think the important thing to really consider first is what you think they need to the bible essay know about you. Again don’t write a career goals essay or an essay totally focused on why you want to go to MIT Sloan. Instead tell them more about you in whatever format you want. This is the third year that MIT has asked this question. Research. One thing that is a bit interesting here is definition on hero that they say they will take any format, but don’t actually indicate how to dissertation provide them with files in any format.
All they have is a 7000 character box and no file uploader for the optional essay. A Short Essay On Criticism. I think this means if you do any sort of audio or visual or multimedia thing, you would need to take care of your own hosting externally and just provide a brief description and dissertation research secondary data, a link. Extended Definition. I could not find any instructions regarding the research methodology data, optional essay that clarified this issue. 7000 characters is well over 1000 words, but I would not necessarily recommend giving MIT an essay nearly that long since the one required essay is essay 500 words. While it is surely possible to discuss problematic issues here as would be typical for the optional essay of another school, I would only do that if absolutely necessary and in conjunction with something more positive. Here is advice for brainstorming your way through this. It is based on my analysis of dissertation research methodology, New York University’s Personal Expression Question, which is essays arnold actually potentially quite similar.
The big difference is the NYU essay is focused on introducing yourself to dissertation secondary data your potential classmates, while the MIT question is much more open-ended. To be honest, I have found a creative essay to of matthew be as effective as an “arts and crafts project,” which you could surely do with MIT’ essays. If you think you can answer the question most effectively by writing an essay, just do that. A creative essay means one that does not appear to be an answer to dissertation research another school’s question, but is uniquely made for MIT. In past years, I have had clients who have done slide presentations for NYU, but given that Chicago Booth uses one, if you are applying to Chicago and definition, Stern and state that on research secondary data your MIT application, don’t do the same kind of PowerPoint for MIT because the MIT admissions people will assume you are trying to cut corners. In general, anytime a school has a non-standard question, you should really keep in thesis statements for wuthering heights mind that they are looking for answers that demonstrate an applicant’s willingness to put time into it. Regarding time, try to give yourself significant time before the deadline if you are going to make anything from scratch.
In my experience, most successful versions for research methodology data answering this kind question take more time and drafts. Essays Of Matthew. Of course, some applicants can do it right quickly (or might have to do it quickly), but since you are trying to make a positive impact on MIT admissions by helping them understand more about you, you certainly want to put together something effective. One very common initial error with this question is to focus on being creative at the exclusion of thinking about the purpose: to provide more information about you that MIT should know because you think it will increase your chance of admission. It may be creative, but make sure that MIT admissions knows you better after they read/view/listen to your presentation. It is your job to dissertation research methodology secondary data provide a sufficiently clear message regardless of the way you present yourself. Some Questions to get you brainstorming:
1. What do you want MIT Admissions to essays know about you that would positively impact your chances for admission? 2. What major positive aspects of who you are have not been effectively INTERPRETED to research the admissions committee in other parts of the a short essay on criticism, application? 3. Beyond what you have discussed in the previous essay, what would you tell someone about yourself to methodology create a strong first impression? 4. Possible For Wuthering Heights. If there was one story about yourself that you think would really help admissions understand you and. want to admit you, what is it?
5. Dissertation Research. Do you have a personal interest (painting, video, photography, and poetry for example) that would work effectively? 6. Is there some aspect of MIT Sloan that itself really relates to you? What about my career goals and what kinds of classes I want to essays of matthew arnold take? My clients sometimes have the research methodology secondary data, urge to tell MIT about career goals or why MIT, but they are not asking for these details here. Essay. Actually, except for some interviews, MIT never asks about career goals. Admissions is very clear about stating that they assume your goals will change and that you are going to research methodology MIT to figure out what you really want to do.
That has always been their message when applicants asked in extended essay the past why there was no career goals essay. Methodology Secondary. You need to align yourself with MIT, so you might find it necessary or useful to mention something specific there in this essay, but only quote do so if such content really helps to tell your story. Given the open-ended nature of the question, I am sure my questions above don’t cover all possibilities, but I hope they are a good start to getting you thinking. IF YOU ARE INVITED FOR AN INTERVIEW. “ A second (short-answer) question will be asked of those invited to interview: The mission of the MIT Sloan School of Management is to develop principled, innovative leaders who improve the world and to generate ideas that advance management practice. Please share with us something about your past that aligns with this mission. Dissertation Research Data. (250 words or fewer).” MIT used this question last year in a longer format which may have involved multiple examples. In this case, those fortunate enough to be called for an interview will only need to write about a single topic. We can break this into a number of possible topics that relate to MIT Sloan’s mission, which I will break into the bible in an, three categories:
1. Data. Describe a time when you were principled. While this might simply mean discussing a time when you were ethical in of matthew terms of a decision or action you took, it could also relate to a situation when you convinced others (a boss, a colleague, a team, an organization, etc.) based on position you held. Being principled might mean ethical, but also relates to ones professional ideas or even perceptions of the dissertation, world. To be principled means to stand up for can you in an what you believe in. 2. Describe a time when you were innovative. Think of situations were you were creative, original, or otherwise made a positive impact by dissertation research secondary data doing something new. Statements. Maybe you were innovative in methodology your approach to solving a problem, but this could be about many possible topics. For Uc Application. For example, describing a time when you improved something, invented something, established a new best practice, or formulated a new idea.
3. Describe a time when you showed leadership. Think of situations when you actively lead as a thought leader, team leader, supervisor, decider, and/or convincer. Leadership takes many forms. Leadership is no easy thing. Nor is it obvious. The worst possible thing is to data conceive of leadership as simple formal responsibility or a title because this conveys nothing about the person in can you quote the bible essay that position. While some applicants will have held formal leadership positions, many will not.
Formal leadership positions are great to dissertation secondary write about if they involve the applicant actually having significant impact, making a difficult decision, being a visionary, showing creativity, or otherwise going beyond their formal responsibility, but the same is true for those showing leadership without having a formal title. If you are having difficulty really understanding leadership, find out what kind of of matthew, leader you are by taking this quiz based on Lewin’s classic framework. I think leadership is more complicated than Lewin’s framework, but this quiz is a great way to get you started thinking about yourself, a key part of answering any leadership essay question effectively. Ideally it would be great to dissertation methodology secondary have a story that combines all three of the above aspects, but don’t worry if it does not. For example, if you find your story focuses on being principled rather than innovative, I would not necessarily abandon that story.
The point is to give MIT an understanding of you as a person sufficient for them to understand why you fit at MIT Sloan. Finally, given that this essay is being asked as part of your interview, assume that whatever you write about you may need to elaborate on in detail in thesis statements for wuthering heights the interviews. I could be wrong about this, but until I read something from MIT admissions indicating otherwise or subsequently get interview reports from my clients or elsewhere indicating otherwise, I assuming that this essay is methodology secondary a part of the interview process. Therefore only essay on hero write about a topic that you will be comfortable discussing in detail. Best of luck with your application.
If you do get to write on the interview invite essay, be sure to read my post on interviewing at MIT Sloan.
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Secondary Data Analysis: A Method of which the Time Has Come
The Skeptics Society Skeptic magazine. In this week’s eSkeptic : Lies We Tell Ourselves. In his February Skeptic column for dissertation data Scientific American , Michael Shermer discusses what evolutionary theorist Robert Trivers calls “the logic of essays of matthew deceit and self-deception“ and what it might mean for the evolution of morality. Russell’s Hedgehogs and Hirst’s Shark. In this week’s Skepticblog, Daniel Loxton reflects on the practical challenges of accurate skeptical scholarship—and considers some issues of deeper philosophical uncertainty. (interview with Scott Poole) This week on MonsterTalk , the hosts talk with the author of Monsters In America , Dr. Scott Poole. His book chronicles the dissertation secondary, history of monsters from colonial America to modern times—and tries to can you quote the bible tackle the research methodology secondary data, issue of meaning in a world where monsters are “meaning machines.” Content Advisory : The content in this episode is rated is PG13 . Be sure to on criticism read the episode notes to see the winners of the MonsterTalk t-shirt design contest and see the dissertation research methodology secondary data, three winning designs.
Donald R. Prothero on extended on hero, Anthropogenic Global Warming. In this week’s eSkeptic , Donald R. Prothero addresses climate change denialism head on, demolishing deniers’ arguments and dissertation research methodology secondary data rebuttals, and clearly demonstrating how we know global warming is real and human caused. Read Prothero’s bio after the article. Share this eSkeptic with friends online. Click the + for essays more options. How We Know Global Warming is Real. and Human Caused.
by Donald R. Prothero. In mid-October 2011, NASA scientists working in Antarctica discovered a massive crack across the Pine Island Glacier, a major ice stream that drains the methodology secondary, West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Extending for 19 miles (30 kilometers), the of matthew, crack was 260 feet (80 meters) wide and 195 feet (60 meters) deep. Dissertation Methodology Data? Eventually, the crack will extend all the way across the glacier, and calve a giant iceberg that will cover about 350 square miles (900 square kilometers). This image from the can you the bible in an, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument on NASA’s Terra spacecraft was acquired Nov. 13, 2011, and covers an area of research methodology secondary 27 by 32 miles (44 by 52 kilometers), and is located near 74.9 degrees south latitude, 101.1 degrees west longitude. (Image Credit: NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team) O n January 27, 2012, the Wall Street Journal ran an Opinion Editorial written by thesis for wuthering heights, 16 people who deny the evidence of human-induced climate change. Dissertation Research Secondary? Most of the definition essay on hero, authors of the editorial were not climate scientists; one of two actual climate scientists of the group, Richard Lindzen, is a notorious global warming denier who also denies that smoking causes cancer. Predictably, the Rupert Murdoch-owned Journal refused to run a statement by secondary, 255 members of the essay about, National Academy of Sciences, although a “Letter to the Editor” by dissertation research secondary data, 38 of the world’s leading climate scientists 1 did manage to get published there. The letter pointed out the numerous lies, mistakes, and definition essay fallacies in the editorial, along with a scathing rebuke by climate scientist Kevin Trenberth, whose remarks were quoted out of context to make them seem the opposite of what he actually said.
As the research methodology data, Trenberth et al. letter pointed out, the 16 authors of the editorial were so far out of their depth in discussing the essay, topic that they were the “climate-science equivalent of dentists practicing cardiology.” And as if to answer the editorial, the earth sent a resounding message in reply. On Feb. Secondary Data? 2, 2012, an 18-mile crack appeared in Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica (see photo above and sidebar for details), a prelude to the calving off an iceberg 350 square miles in area, one of the largest icebergs ever seen. 2. How do we know that global warming is essays of matthew, real and primarily human caused? There are numerous lines of evidence that converge to dissertation methodology secondary data this conclusion.
Figure 1 . The Moberg et al. (2005) plot (updated from the Mann et al., 1999, plot) of the last 2000 years of essays of matthew arnold earth’s average surface temperature, which shows over 800 years of relative stability followed by the rapid warming of the past two centuries, giving it the shape of a “hockey stick.” The slight warming trend of the research methodology secondary data, Medieval Warm Period can also be seen (data from 900–1200 A.D.) and essays of matthew is nowhere near the research methodology secondary, magnitude of the warming in the past century. ( Click diagrams to essay about nightmare enlarge them. ) Carbon Dioxide Increase . Carbon dioxide in our atmosphere has increased at an unprecedented rate in the past 200 years. Not one data set collected over a long enough span of research methodology secondary data time shows otherwise. Mann et al. (1999) compiled the past 900 years’ worth of temperature data from tree rings, ice cores, corals, and direct measurements of the past few centuries, and the sudden increase of temperature of the past century stands out like a sore thumb. This famous graph (see Figure 1 above) is now known as the “hockey stick” because it is long and straight through most of its length, then bends sharply upward at the end like the blade of a hockey stick. Other graphs show that climate was very stable within a narrow range of variation through the past 1000, 2000, or even 10,000 years since the end of the last Ice Age.
There were minor warming events during the Climatic Optimum about 7000 years ago, the Medieval Warm Period, and the slight cooling of the Little Ice Age from the quote in an essay, 1700s and 1800s. But the magnitude and rapidity of the warming represented by dissertation research, the last 200 years is simply unmatched in all of human history. More revealing, the timing of essay prompt application this warming coincides with the Industrial Revolution, when humans first began massive deforestation and released carbon dioxide by burning coal, gas, and dissertation methodology oil. Melting Polar Ice Caps . The polar icecaps are thinning and breaking up at an alarming rate. In 2000, my former graduate advisor Malcolm McKenna was one of the first humans to essays of matthew fly over dissertation research data, the North Pole in summer time and see no ice, just open water. The Arctic ice cap has been frozen solid for at least the past 3 million years and maybe longer 3 , but now the entire ice sheet is breaking up so fast that by essays of matthew arnold, 2030 (and possibly sooner) less than half of the Arctic will be ice covered in the summer. 4 As one can see from watching the news, this is an ecological disaster for everything that lives up there, from the polar bears to the seals and walruses to the animals they feed upon, to the 4 million people whose world is melting beneath their feet. The Antarctic is thawing even faster. In February–March 2002, the dissertation, Larsen B ice shelf—over 3000 square km (the size of Rhode Island) and 220 m (700 feet) thick—broke up in extended on hero just a few months, a story typical of methodology nearly all the ice shelves in Antarctica.
The Larsen B shelf had survived all the previous ice ages and essay interglacial warming episodes for the past 3 million years, and even the warmest periods of the research methodology data, last 10,000 years—yet it and nearly all the other thick ice sheets on the Arctic, Greenland, and Antarctic are vanishing at a rate never before seen in geologic history. Melting Glaciers . Glaciers are all retreating at the highest rates ever documented. Essay? Many of those glaciers, especially in the Himalayas, Andes, Alps, and Sierras, provide most of the freshwater that the populations below the mountains depend upon—yet this fresh water supply is dissertation research methodology, vanishing. Just think about the percentage of world’s population in southern Asia (especially India) that depend on Himalayan snowmelt for their fresh water. The implications are staggering. Definition On Hero? The permafrost that once remained solidly frozen even in the summer has now thawed, damaging the Inuit villages on the Arctic coast and threatening all our pipelines to dissertation methodology secondary the North Slope of Alaska. This is catastrophic not only for essay prompt for uc application life on dissertation research secondary, the permafrost, but as it thaws, the permafrost releases huge amounts of greenhouse gases and is one of the major contributors to global warming. Essays Arnold? Not only is the ice vanishing, but we have seen record heat waves over and over again, killing thousands of people, as each year joins the list of the hottest years on record. (2010 just topped that list as the secondary data, hottest year, surpassing the nightmare, previous record in 2009, and we shall know about 2011 soon enough).
Natural animal and plant populations are being devastated all over the globe as their environment changes. 5 Many animals respond by secondary data, moving their ranges to formerly cold climates, so now places that once did not have to worry about disease-bearing mosquitoes are infested as the climate warms and allows them to breed further north. Sea Level Rise . All that melted ice eventually ends up in the ocean, causing sea level to rise, as it has many times in thesis statements heights the geologic past. Research Secondary? At present, sea level is rising about 3–4 mm per year, more than ten times the rate of 0.1–0.2 mm/year that has occurred over the past 3000 years. Thesis Statements For Wuthering Heights? Geological data show that sea level was virtually unchanged over the past 10,000 years since the present interglacial began. A few millimeters here or there doesn’t impress people, until you consider that the rate is accelerating and dissertation research that most scientists predict sea level will rise 80–130 cm in just the next century. A sea level rise of 1.3 m (almost 4 feet) would drown many of the world’s low-elevation cities, such as Venice and New Orleans, and on hero low-lying countries such as the Netherlands or Bangladesh. A number of tiny island nations such as Vanuatu and the Maldives, which barely poke out above the ocean now, are already vanishing beneath the waves. Secondary Data? Eventually their entire population will have to move someplace else.
6 Even a small sea level rise might not drown all these areas, but they are much more vulnerable to the large waves of a storm surge (as happened with Hurricane Katrina), which could do much more damage than sea level rise alone. If sea level rose by essays of matthew arnold, 6 m (20 feet), most of the world’s coastal plains and dissertation data low-lying areas (such as the Louisiana bayous, Florida, and most of the world’s river deltas) would be drowned. Most of the world’s population lives in coastal cities such as New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Miami, Shanghai, and London. All of thesis for wuthering those cities would be partially or completely under water with such a sea level rise. If all the glacial ice caps melted completely (as they have several times before during past greenhouse episodes in the geologic past), sea level would rise by 65 m (215 feet)! The entire Mississippi Valley would flood, so you could dock your boat in Cairo, Illinois.
Such a sea level rise would drown nearly every coastal region under hundreds of feet of water, and inundate New York City, London and Paris. All that would remain would be the tall landmarks, such as the Empire State Building, Big Ben, and the Eiffel Tower. You could tie your boats to these pinnacles, but the rest of these drowned cities would be deep under water. Climate Deniers’ Arguments and Scientists’ Rebuttals. Despite the overwhelming evidence there are many people who remain skeptical. One reason is research data, that they have been fed lies, distortions, and misstatements by the global warming denialists who want to cloud or confuse the issue. Let’s examine some of these claims in detail: “ It’s just natural climatic variability .” No, it is not . As I detailed in possible statements my 2009 book, Greenhouse of the Dinosaurs , geologists and paleoclimatologists know a lot about past greenhouse worlds, and the icehouse planet that has existed for the past 33 million years.
We have a good understanding of how and why the Antarctic ice sheet first appeared at that time, and how the Arctic froze over about 3.5 million years ago, beginning the 24 glacial and interglacial episodes of the “Ice Ages” that have occurred since then. Methodology Secondary? We know how variations in the earth’s orbit (the Milankovitch cycles) controls the amount of solar radiation the earth receives, triggering the shifts between glacial and interglacial periods. Can You? Our current warm interglacial has already lasted 10,000 years, the duration of most previous interglacials, so if it were not for global warming, we would be headed into the next glacial in the next 1000 years or so. Research Secondary Data? Instead, our pumping greenhouse gases into our atmosphere after they were long trapped in the earth’s crust has pushed the extended definition essay on hero, planet into a “super-interglacial,” already warmer than any previous warming period. We can see the “big picture” of climate variability most clearly in the EPICA (European Project for dissertation research Ice Coring in Antarctica) cores from Antarctica (see Figure 2 below), which show the details of the last 650,000 years of glacial-interglacial cycles.
At no time during any previous interglacial did the carbon dioxide levels exceed 300 ppm, even at their very warmest . Our atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are already close to 400 ppm today. The atmosphere is headed to 600 ppm within a few decades, even if we stopped releasing greenhouse gases immediately. For Uc Application? This is decidedly not within the normal range of “climatic variability,” but clearly unprecedented in human history. Anyone who says this is data, “normal variability” has never seen the huge amount of paleoclimatic data that show otherwise. Figure 2 . The climate record from EPICA core from essay Antartica. Research Methodology Secondary? It shows the normal range of essay about nightmare climate variability over the past 650,000 years (450,000 years shown here) and dissertation research data the last 6 glacial-interglacial cycles. At no point in any previous interglacial was the carbon dioxide level higher than 300 ppm, or the temperatures so high, yet we are almost to essay on hero 400 ppm today. This is ironclad evidence that our present episode of warming is not “normal fluctuations.”
“ It’s just another warming episode, like the Mediaeval Warm Period, or the Holocene Climatic Optimum” or the end of the dissertation methodology secondary, Little Ice Age .” Untrue . There were numerous small fluctuations of warming and cooling over essay nightmare, the last 10,000 years of the Holocene. But in the case of the Mediaeval Warm Period (about 950–1250 A.D.), the methodology data, temperatures increased by extended definition, only 1°C, much less than we have seen in the current episode of global warming (see Figure 1). Research Methodology Secondary? This episode was also only a local warming in the North Atlantic and northern Europe. Global temperatures over this interval did not warm at all, and actually cooled by more than 1°C. Likewise, the warmest period of the last 10,000 years was the Holocene Climatic Optimum (5000–9000 B.C.) when warmer and wetter conditions in Eurasia caused the rise of the first great civilizations in Egypt, Mesopotamia, the Indus Valley, and China.
This was largely a Northern Hemisphere-Eurasian phenomenon, with 2–3°C warming in the Arctic and northern Europe. But there was almost no warming in the tropics, and cooling or no change in statements the Southern Hemisphere. 7 To the dissertation research data, Eurocentric world, these warming events seemed important, but on can you, a global scale the effect is negligible. Research Secondary? In addition, neither of essay these warming episodes is related to research increasing greenhouse gases. The Holocene Climatic Optimum, in fact, is predicted by the Milankovitch cycles, since at that time the can you quote the bible in an, axial tilt of the earth was 24°, its steepest value, meaning the Northern Hemisphere got more solar radiation than normal—but the Southern Hemisphere less, so the secondary data, two balanced. By contrast, not only is the warming observed in essays the last 200 years much greater than during these previous episodes, but it is also global and research methodology data bipolar , so it is not a purely local effect. The warming that ended the Little Ice Age (from the mid-1700s to the late 1800s) was due to increased solar radiation prior to 1940.
Since 1940, however, the extended definition, amount of dissertation solar radiation has been dropping, so the essay application, only candidate for the post-1940 warming has to be carbon dioxide. 8 “ It’s just the sun, or cosmic rays, or volcanic activity or methane .” Nope, sorry . The amount of heat that the research data, sun provides has been decreasing since 1940 9 , just the opposite essay prompt, of the dissertation research methodology data, denialists’ claims. There is no evidence (see Figure 3 below) of increase in cosmic radiation during the past century. 10 Nor is a short, there any clear evidence that large-scale volcanic events (such as the 1815 eruption of Tambora in Indonesia, which changed global climate for research methodology secondary about a year) have any long-term effect that would explain 200 years of can you essay warming and carbon dioxide increase. Volcanoes erupt only 0.3 billion tonnes of dissertation methodology secondary data carbon dioxide each year, but humans emit over can you the bible essay, 29 billion tonnes a year 11 , roughly 100 times as much. Clearly, we have a bigger effect. Methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas, but there is 200 times more carbon dioxide than methane, so carbon dioxide is still the most important agent. 12 Every other alternative has been looked at, but the only clear-cut relationship is between human-caused carbon dioxide increase and global warming.
Figure 3. Methodology? Plot of solar energy input to the earth versus temperature of the last century. The two tend to track each other until the essay for uc, last 30 years, at which time the methodology, earth warmed dramatically even as solar input went down. Figure 4a . Essay About? The plot of global mean temperature over the past century, showing the yearly data (solid black lines) and the smoothed curve using a 5-year rolling average (blue line). Clearly, the trend has been dramatically increasing, and individual data points from one year do not tell the dissertation secondary, whole story. The anomalous El Nino warm year of 1998 is one of those outliers. Figure 4b . Extended? A detailed plot of the past 20 years of global mean temperatures, showing how anomalous 1998 was. If you cherry-pick 1998 and the two years that followed it, it appears that climate is cooling. However, if you pick any two points other than 1998–2000, or any rolling average, it is clear that climate is warming. Indeed, most of the years from 2002 and on are as warm or warmer than 1998, so any claim that “it has been cooling since 1998” is a lie. The short-term cooling of the 2008 La Nina year can also be seen.
“ The climate records since 1995 (or 1998) show cooling .” That’s a deliberate deception . People who throw this argument out are cherry-picking the data. 13 Over the short term, there was a slight cooling trend from dissertation methodology data 1998–2000 (see Figure 4 below), because 1998 was a record-breaking El Nino year, so the next few years look cooler by comparison. But since 2002, the overall long-term trend of warming is unequivocal. This statement is a clear-cut case of using out-of-context data in an attempt to deny reality. All of the 16 hottest years ever recorded on a global scale have occurred in the last 20 years.
They are (in order of for wuthering hottest first): 2010, 2009, 1998, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2001, 1997, 2008, 1995, 1999, 1990, and 2000. 14 In other words, every year since 2000 has been in the Top Ten hottest years list, and the rest of the list includes 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000. Only 1996 failed to make the list (because of the short-term cooling mentioned already). “ We had record snows in dissertation data the winters of 2009–2010, and in 2010–2011 .” So what? This is nothing more than the difference between weather (short-term seasonal changes) and climate (the long-term average of essay weather over dissertation research, decades and centuries and longer). Our local weather tells us nothing about a short essay, another continent, or the global average; it is only a local effect, determined by short-term atmospheric and oceanographic conditions. 15 In fact, warmer global temperatures mean more moisture in the atmosphere, which increases the intensity of normal winter snowstorms. In this particular case, the climate denialists forget that the early winter of November–December 2009 was actually very mild and dissertation research methodology data warm, and definition essay on hero then only later in January and February did it get cold and snow heavily. Research Secondary Data? That warm spell in early winter helped bring more moisture into the system, so that when cold weather occurred, the snows were worse.
In addition, the quote, snows were unusually heavy only in North America; the rest of the world had different weather, and the global climate was warmer than average. And the summer of 2010 was the research secondary, hottest on record, breaking the previous record set in 2009. “ Carbon dioxide is good for plants, so the world will be better off .” Who do they think they’re kidding? The people who promote this idea clearly don’t know much global geochemistry, or are trying to prompt for uc application cynically take advantage of the fact that most people are ignorant of research science. The Competitive Enterprise Institute (funded by oil and coal companies and conservative foundations 16 ) has run a series of shockingly stupid ads concluding with the tag line “Carbon dioxide: they call it pollution, we call it life.” Anyone who knows the basic science of for uc application earth’s atmosphere can spot the methodology secondary, deceptions in this ad. 17 Sure, plants take in carbon dioxide that animals exhale, as they have for millions of years. But the whole point of the global warming evidence (as shown from ice cores) is that the delicate natural balance of carbon dioxide has been thrown out of whack by our production of too much of it, way in excess of what plants or the about nightmare, oceans can handle. Research? As a consequence, the essay nightmare, oceans are warming 18 and absorbing excess carbon dioxide making them more acidic.
Already we are seeing a shocking decline in coral reefs (“bleaching”) and extinctions in many marine ecosystems that can’t handle too much of a good thing. Meanwhile, humans are busy cutting down huge areas of dissertation research temperate and tropical forests, which not only means there are fewer plants to absorb the extended essay, gas, but the slash and dissertation methodology data burn practices are releasing more carbon dioxide than plants can keep up with. There is much debate as to whether increased carbon dioxide might help agriculture in some parts of the world, but that has to be measured against the fact that other traditional “breadbasket” regions (such as the American Great Plains) are expected to get too hot to be as productive as they are today. The latest research 19 actually shows that increased carbon dioxide inhibits the absorption of nitrogen into a short essay plants, so plants (at least those that we depend upon today) are not going to flourish in a greenhouse world. Data? Anyone who tells you otherwise is ignorant of basic atmospheric science. “ I agree that climate is changing, but I’m skeptical that humans are the main cause, so we shouldn’t do anything .” This is about, just fence sitting . A lot of reasonable skeptics deplore the “climate denialism” of the right wing, but still want to be skeptical about the cause.
If they want proof, they can examine the huge array of dissertation research methodology data that directly points to humans causing global warming. Essay On Criticism? 20 We can directly measure the amount of carbon dioxide humans are producing, and it tracks exactly with the dissertation methodology secondary data, amount of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Through carbon isotope analysis, we can show that this carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is coming directly from our burning of fossil fuels, not from natural sources. We can also measure oxygen levels that drop as we produce more carbon that then combines with oxygen to possible thesis statements produce carbon dioxide. We have satellites in space that are measuring the heat released from the planet and can actually see the atmosphere get warmer. The most crucial proof emerged only in the past few years: climate models of the greenhouse effect predict that there should be cooling in the stratosphere (the upper layer of the atmosphere above 10 km (6 miles) in elevation, but warming in research data the troposphere (the bottom layer of the atmosphere below 10 km (6 miles), and a short that’s exactly what our space probes have measured. Finally, we can rule out any other culprits (see above): solar heat is research data, decreasing since 1940, not increasing, and there are no measurable increases in cosmic radiation, methane, volcanic gases, or any other potential cause.
Face it—it’s our problem. Why Do People Deny Climate Change? Thanks to all the definition essay, noise and confusion over dissertation research data, the debate, the general public has only a vague idea of essays of matthew what the debate is really about, and only about dissertation research methodology secondary, half of Americans think global warming is real or that we are to blame. 21 As in the debate over evolution and creationism, the scientific community is a short essay on criticism, virtually unanimous on what the data demonstrate about anthropogenic global warming. This has been true for over a decade. When science historian Naomi Oreskes 22 surveyed all peer-reviewed papers on climate change published between 1993 and 2003 in dissertation methodology secondary data the world’s leading scientific journal, Science , she found that there were 980 supporting the of matthew, idea of human-induced global warming and research secondary none opposing it. In 2009, Doran and Kendall Zimmerman 23 surveyed all the climate scientists who were familiar with the data.
They found that 95–99% agreed that global warming is real and that humans are the reason. In 2010, the essay on criticism, prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences published a study that showed that 98% of the scientists who actually do research in climate change are in agreement with anthropogenic global warming. Dissertation Research Methodology Secondary Data? 24 Every major scientific organization in the world has endorsed the conclusion of quote in an anthropogenic climate change as well. This is a rare degree of agreement within such an independent and cantankerous group as the dissertation research, world’s top scientists. This is the extended, same degree of scientific consensus that scientists have achieved over most major ideas, including gravity, evolution, and relativity. These and only a few other topics in science can claim this degree of agreement among nearly all the dissertation research secondary, world’s leading scientists, especially among everyone who is close to the scientific data and knows the problem intimately. If it were not such a controversial topic politically, there would be almost no interest in debating it, since the evidence is about nightmare, so clear-cut. Reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. If the climate science community speaks with one voice (as in the 2007 IPCC report, and every report since then), why is there still any debate at all? The answer has been revealed by a number of investigations by diligent reporters who got past the PR machinery denying global warming, and uncovered the money trail.
Originally, there was no real “dissenters” to the idea of dissertation secondary global warming by scientists who are actually involved with climate research. Instead, the forces with vested interests in denying global climate change (the energy companies, and extended definition on hero the “free-market” advocates) followed the strategy of tobacco companies: create a smokescreen of confusion and prevent the American public from recognizing scientific consensus. As the famous memo 25 from the tobacco lobbyists said “Doubt is our product.” The denialists generated an research methodology data anti-science movement entirely out of thin air and PR. The evidence for this PR conspiracy has been well documented in numerous sources. For example, Oreskes and Conway revealed from memos leaked to the press that in April 1998 the extended, right-wing Marshall Institute, SEPP (Fred Seitz’s lobby that aids tobacco companies and polluters), and ExxonMobil, met in secret at dissertation research methodology the American Petroleum Institute’s headquarters in Washington, D.C. There they planned a $20 million campaign to definition get “respected scientists” to cast doubt on dissertation, climate change, get major PR efforts going, and lobby Congress that global warming isn’t real and essay about nightmare is not a threat. The right-wing institutes and the energy lobby beat the bushes to find scientists— any scientists—who might disagree with the scientific consensus. As investigative journalists and scientists have documented over and over again, 26 the denialist conspiracy essentially paid for the testimony of anyone who could be useful to them. The day that the 2007 IPCC report was released (Feb. 2, 2007), the British newspaper The Guardian reported that the conservative American Enterprise Institute (funded largely by oil companies and conservative think tanks) had offered $10,000 plus travel expenses to scientists who would write negatively about the IPCC report. 27.
We are accustomed to the hired-gun “experts” paid by lawyers to muddy up the evidence in research secondary the case they are fighting, but this is extraordinary—buying scientists outright to act as shills for organizations trying to deny scientific reality. With this kind of money, however, you can always find a fringe scientist or crank or someone with no relevant credentials who will do what they’re paid to do. by Donald Prothero. Prothero discusses the definition, latest findings in geology and paleontology, providing an insider’s view of the dissertation research methodology, profession. His detailed, first-person narrative allows readers to experience the prompt, personalities, the debates, the controversies, the development of new scientific techniques, and dissertation research secondary data the latest scientific findings as they happened.
This book is extended on hero, a valuable, no-nonsense, must-read for dissertation methodology secondary data anyone interested in paleontology or geology, or anyone considering entering those fields. The NCSE satirized this tactic of composing phony “lists of scientists” with their “Project Steve.” 28 They showed that there were more scientists named “Steve” than their entire list of essays arnold “scientists who dispute evolution.” It may generate lots of PR and a smokescreen to confuse the public, but it doesn’t change the research secondary data, fact that scientists who actually do research in quote in an climate change are unanimous in their insistence that anthropogenic global warming is a real threat . Most scientists I know and respect work very hard for little pay, yet they still cannot be paid to endorse some scientific idea they know to be false. The climate deniers have a lot of research methodology other things in common with creationists and other anti-science movements. They too like to quote someone out of can you quote the bible in an essay context (“quote mining”), finding a short phrase in the work of legitimate scientists that seems to support their position. But when you read the full quote in context, it is obvious that they have used the quote inappropriately. Dissertation? The original author meant something that does not support their goals. Can You The Bible In An Essay? The “Climategate scandal” is a classic case of this. It started with a few stolen emails from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia.
If you read the complete text of the actual emails 29 and secondary data comprehend the scientific shorthand of climate scientists who are talking casually to each other, it is extended definition, clear that there was no great “conspiracy” or that they were faking data. All six subsequent investigations have cleared Philip Jones and the other scientists of the University of dissertation secondary East Anglia of any wrongdoing or conspiracy. 30. Even if there had been some conspiracy on the part of these few scientists, there is no reason to believe that the entire climate science community is secretly working together to generate false information and mislead the public. If there’s one thing that is clear about science, it’s about arnold, competition and dissertation methodology secondary data criticism, not conspiracy and collusion. Most labs are competing with each other, not conspiring together.
If one lab publishes a result that is not clearly defensible, other labs will quickly correct it. As James Lawrence Powell wrote 31 : Scientists….show no evidence of being more interested in politics or ideology than the average American. Does it make sense to believe that tens of thousands of scientists would be so deeply and secretly committed to bringing down capitalism and the American way of life that they would spend years beyond their undergraduate degrees working to receive master’s and Ph.D. degrees, then go to work in a government laboratory or university, plying the deep oceans, forbidding deserts, icy poles, and torrid jungles, all for far less money than they could have made in industry, all the essay, while biding their time like a Russian sleeper agent in an old spy novel? Scientists tend to be independent and dissertation secondary data resist authority. That is why you are apt to find them in the laboratory or in the field, as far as possible from the prying eyes of a supervisor. Anyone who believes he could organize thousands of scientists into a conspiracy has never attended a single faculty meeting. There are many more traits that the climate deniers share with the creationists and on criticism Holocaust deniers and others who distort the truth. They pick on small disagreements between different labs as if scientists can’t get their story straight, when in reality there is always a fair amount of research secondary give and thesis statements heights take between competing labs as they try to dissertation research secondary data get the essays, answer right before the other lab can do so.
The key point here is that when all these competing labs around the world have reached a consensus and get the same answer, there is no longer any reason to research methodology secondary data doubt their common conclusion. The anti-scientists of climate denialism will also point to small errors by thesis statements heights, individuals in methodology secondary an effort to argue that the entire enterprise cannot be trusted. It is essays arnold, true that scientists are human, and do make mistakes, but the great power of the methodology data, scientific method is thesis statements heights, that peer review weeds these out , so that when scientists speak with consensus, there is dissertation research secondary, no doubt that their data are checked carefully. Finally, a powerful line of evidence that this is a purely political controversy, rather than a scientific debate, is essays, that the membership lists of the creationists and the climate deniers are highly overlapping. Research Secondary? Both anti-scientific dogmas are fed to their overlapping audiences through right-wing media such as Fox News, Glenn Beck, and Rush Limbaugh. Just take a look at the “intelligent-design” creationism website for the Discovery Institute. Most of the daily news items lately have nothing to do with creationism at all, but are focused on climate denial and essay prompt other right-wing causes. 32.
If the data about global climate change are indeed valid and methodology robust, any qualified scientist should be able to look at them and see if the prevailing scientific interpretation holds up. Indeed, such a test took place. Starting in essays 2010, a group led by U.C. Berkeley physicist Richard Muller re-examined all the temperature data from the NOAA, East Anglia Hadley Climate Research Unit, and the Goddard Institute of Space Science sources (see Figure 5 below). Even though Muller started out as a skeptic of the temperature data, and was funded by the Koch brothers and dissertation research other oil company sources, he carefully checked and re-checked the research himself. When the essays of matthew arnold, GOP leaders called him to testify before the research methodology secondary data, House Science and quote essay Technology Committee in spring 2011, they were expecting him to discredit the temperature data.
Instead, Muller shocked his GOP sponsors by demonstrating his scientific integrity and telling the truth: the temperature increase is real, and the scientists who have demonstrated that the climate is changing are right. In the fall of 2011, his study was published, and the conclusions were clear: global warming is real, even to a right-wing skeptical scientist. Unlike the hired-gun scientists who play political games, Muller did what a true scientist should do: if the data go against methodology data, your biases and preconceptions, then do the essays arnold, right thing and admit it—even if you’ve been paid by sponsors who want to discredit global warming. Data? Muller is essay about, a shining example of a scientist whose integrity and dissertation secondary honesty came first, and did not sell out to the highest bidder. 33.
Figure 5 . Quote The Bible In An Essay? Plot contrasting the temperature data obtained by dissertation research methodology data, three original sources (NOAA, Goddard Institute of Space Sciences, and The Hadley Climate Research Unit of the nightmare, University of East Anglia) with the data obtained by Richard Muller’s Berkeley group, which was originally attempting to deny the evidence of global warming, but found that in dissertation methodology fact the can you quote essay, original data were correct and the planet is getting warmer. The conclusion is dissertation research methodology secondary data, clear: there’s science, and then there’s the anti-science of the global warming denial. As we have seen, there is a nearly unanimous consensus among climate scientists that anthropogenic global warming is real and for wuthering heights that we must do something about it. Yet the dissertation research secondary, smokescreen, bluster and lies of the deniers has created enough doubt that only half of the American public is convinced the problem requires action. Ironically, the U.S. is essays of matthew arnold, almost alone in their denial of this scientific reality. Research? International polls taken of 33,000 people in 33 nations in 2006 and 2007 show that 90% of their citizens regard climate change as a serious problem 34 and 80% realize that humans are the cause of it.
35 Just as in the case of creationism, the U.S. is out of step with much of the rest of the world in accepting scientific reality. It is not just the liberals and environmentalists who are taking climate change seriously. Historically conservative institutions (big corporations such as General Electric and many others such as insurance companies and the bible essay the military) are already planning on dissertation research methodology, how to deal with global warming. Many of a short my friends high in dissertation methodology the oil companies tell me of the efforts by arnold, those companies to get into other forms of energy, because they know that oil will be running out soon and research secondary that the quote the bible, effects of burning oil will make their business less popular. Methodology Data? BP officially stands for “British Petroleum,” but in possible thesis for wuthering heights one of their ad campaigns about 5 years ago, it stood for “Beyond Petroleum.” 36 Although they still spend relatively little of their total budgets on alternative forms of secondary energy, the oil companies still can see the handwriting on quote, the wall about the eventual exhaustion of oil—and they are acting like any company that wants to survive by getting into dissertation methodology data a new business when the essay nightmare, old one is dying.
The Pentagon (normally not a left-wing institution) is also making contingency plans for how to fight wars in an era of global climate change, and what kinds of strategic threats might occur when climate change alters the kinds of enemies we might be fighting, and water becomes a scarce commodity. The New York Times reported 37 that in December 2008, the National Defense University outlined plans for dissertation methodology data military strategy in a greenhouse world. To the Pentagon, the big issue is global chaos and the potential of even nuclear conflict. The world must “prepare for the inevitable effects of abrupt climate change—which will likely come [the only question is when] regardless of human activity.” Insurance companies have no political axe to grind.
If anything, they tend to be on the conservative side. They are simply in the business of of matthew assessing risk in a realistic fashion so they can accurately gauge their future insurance policies and research methodology data what to charge for them. Yet they are all investing heavily in research on about, the disasters and risks posed by climatic change. In 2005, a study commissioned by dissertation research methodology, the re-insurer Swiss Re said, “Climate change will significantly affect the health of humans and ecosystems and these impacts will have economic consequences.” 38. Some people may still try to essay about nightmare deny scientific reality, but big businesses like oil and insurance, and conservative institutions like the military, cannot afford to be blinded or deluded by research data, ideology. They must plan for the real world that we will be seeing in the next few decades.
They do not want to a short essay be caught unprepared and harmed by global climatic change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society. geol445/hyperglac/time1/time.htm Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’. bbc.co.uk. 2007-12-12. Barnosky, A.D.
2009. Heatstroke: Nature in an Age of Global Warming . Island Press, Washington, DC. Methodology Secondary Data? http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/dec2005/2005-12-06-02.asp Masson, V., Vimeux, F., Jouzel, J., Morgan, V., Delmotte, M., Ciais,P., Hammer, C., Johnsen, S., Lipenkov, V.Y., Mosley-Thompson, E.,Petit, J.-R., Steig, E.J., Stievenard,M., Vaikmae, R. (2000). “Holocene climate variability in Antarctica based on 11 ice-core isotopic records”. Quaternary Research 54: 348–358. D.S. Kaufman, T.A. Ager, N.J. Anderson, P.M. Anderson, J.T. Andrews, P.J. Extended Definition Essay On Hero? Bartlein, L.B. Brubaker, L.L.
Coats, L.C. Cwynar, M.L. Duvall, A.S. Dyke, M.E. Edwards, W.R. Eisner, K. Gajewski, A. Geirsdottir, F.S. Hu, A.E. Jennings, M.R. Kaplan, M.W. Kerwin, A.V. Lozhkin, G.M. MacDonald, G.H. Miller, C.J. Mock, W.W. Oswald, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, D.F.
Porinchu, K. Secondary? Ruhland, J.P. Smol, E.J. Essay Prompt For Uc? Steig, B.B. Wolfe (2004). “Holocene thermal maximum in the western Arctic (0–180 W)”. Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 529–560. http://www.skepticalscience.com/coming-out-of-little-ice-age.htm http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm http://www.skepticalscience.com/cosmic-rays-and-global-warming.htm http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm http://www.skepticalscience.com/methane-and-global-warming.htm http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm http://www.nicholas.duke.edu/thegreengrok/2008temps http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-cold-weather.htm http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-pollutant.htm http://www.skepticalscience.com/ocean-and-global-warming.htm Bloom, A.J., Burger, M., Asensio, J.S.R., and Cousins, A.B.
2010. Carbon dioxide enrichment inhibits nitrate assimilation in wheat and Arabidopsis . Science 328: 899–903. http://www.skepticalscience.com/its-not-us.htm http://www.gallup.com/poll/126560/americans-global-warming-concerns-continue-drop.aspx Oreskes, N. 2004. Methodology Secondary Data? Beyond the Ivory Tower: The scientific consensus on essay about, climatic change. Science 306: 1686. Dissertation Secondary Data? Doran, P., and M. Essay For Uc? Kendall Zimmerman. 2009. Examining the research methodology data, scientific consensus on climatic change. EOS 90 (3): 22. A Short On Criticism? Anderegg, W.R.L., Prall, J.W., Harold, J., and Schneider, S.H.
2010. Expert credibility on climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 107:12107–12109. Methodology? http://lightbucket.wordpress.com/2008/04/07/doubt-is-our-product-pr-versus-science/ McCright, A. M., Dunlap, R. E. 2003. Essay Nightmare? Defeating Kyoto: The Conservative Movement’s Impact on U.S. Dissertation Secondary Data? Climate Change Policy. Social Problems 50 (3): 348–373; Curry, J.A., Webster, P.J., and Holland, G.J.
2006. Mixing Politics and Science in Testing the Hypothesis That Greenhouse Warming Is Causing a Global Increase in Hurricane Intensity. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87 (8): 1025–1037; Williams, N. 2005. Essays Of Matthew? Heavyweight attack on dissertation methodology secondary data, climate-change denial, Current Biology 15 (4): R109–R110; Mooney, C. 2006. The Republican War on Science . Basic Books, New York; Mooney, C. 2007.
Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle over Global Warming . Harcourt, New York.Hoggan, J. 2009. Climate Cover-Up: the Crusade to Deny Global Warming . Greystone, Vancouver, B.C.; Oreskes, N., and Conway, E.M. 2010. Merchants of Doubt: How a handful of scientists obscured the truth on the issues from tobacco smoke to global warming . A Short On Criticism? Bloomsbury Press, New York. Ian Sample, “Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study,” The Guardian , 2 Feb.
2007. Dissertation Research Methodology Secondary Data? http://ncse.com/taking-action/project-steve http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/14/AR2010041404001.html Powell, J.L. The Bible Essay? 2011. The Inquisition of research Climate Science , p. Essay? 187 http://sensuouscurmudgeon.wordpress.com/2010/03/19/discovery-institute-praises-global-warming-deniers/ http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/04/local/la-me-climate-berkeley-20110404 http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/btenvironmentra/187.php?nid=#038;id=#038;pnt=187 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7010522.stm http://www.prwatch.org/node/9038 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/09/science/earth/09climate.html?hp Epstein, P.R., Mills, E. (Eds.) 2005. Climate Change Futures: Health, Ecological and Economic Dimensions, Center for Health and the Global Environment , Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA. DR. DONALD R. PROTHERO was Professor of Geology at Occidental College in Los Angeles, and Lecturer in Geobiology at research data the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. He earned M.A., M.Phil., and Ph.D. degrees in geological sciences from Columbia University in 1982, and a B.A. in geology and biology (highest honors, Phi Beta Kappa) from the University of California, Riverside.
He is currently the author, co-author, editor, or co-editor of 32 books and over 250 scientific papers, including five leading geology textbooks and five trade books as well as edited symposium volumes and other technical works. He is on the editorial board of Skeptic magazine, and in the past has served as an associate or technical editor for Geology , Paleobiology and Journal of Paleontology . He is a Fellow of the Geological Society of America, the Paleontological Society, and the Linnaean Society of London, and has also received fellowships from the Guggenheim Foundation and the National Science Foundation. He has served as the essay about nightmare, President and Vice President of the Pacific Section of SEPM (Society of Sedimentary Geology), and five years as the Program Chair for the Society of Vertebrate Paleontology. In 1991, he received the Schuchert Award of the Paleontological Society for the outstanding paleontologist under the age of 40. He has also been featured on several television documentaries, including episodes of Paleoworld (BBC), Prehistoric Monsters Revealed (History Channel), Entelodon and Hyaenodon ( National Geographic Channel) and Walking with Prehistoric Beasts (BBC). His website is: www.donaldprothero.com. Check out dissertation data, Donald Prothero’s page at Shop Skeptic.
Skeptical perspectives on global warming and extended definition essay climate change… Climate Skeptics v. Research? Deniers. In this issue: Climate Skeptics: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly; Dowsing Rod Bomb Detectors; Sex #038; Astrology; What is Truth?; Stigma of Being an Atheist; Health Hype: Are We Really Living Longer? Do Cell Phones Cause Cancer? Do Environmental Chemicals Destroy Male Fertility? Boosting Your Immune System; Teaching Strategies: Magic in essay prompt application the Classroom; The Grinnell Experiment, and more… Order this single issue or subscribe to Skeptic magazine . Skeptic Conference 2006 (Part 3) with Dr.
Donald Prothero, Dr. Brian Fagan, and data Dr. Gregory Benford. In this, part 3 of our 5 part 2006 conference DVD set, Dr. Donald Prothero discusses Catastrophes that Shape the Planet , Dr.
Brian Fagan discusses Climate Change #038; Ancient Societies , and Dr. Gregory Benford discusses Stabilizing the Future Greenhouse Earth . This recording includes a panel discussion and can you the bible in an essay Q #038; A with these three speakers. by Dr. Tim Flannery. Sometime this century the day will arrive when the human influence on the climate will overwhelm all other natural factors. Over the past decade, the dissertation methodology, world has seen the essay prompt, most powerful El Nino ever recorded, the most devastating hurricane in 200 years, the methodology, hottest European summer on record, and one of the definition essay on hero, worst storm seasons ever experienced in secondary Florida.
With one out of every five living things on this planet committed to extinction by the levels of greenhouse gases that will accumulate in the next few decades, we are reaching a global climatic tipping point… GET THE LECTURE. An Ecopragmatist Manifesto. by Stewart Brand. According to Stewart Brand, a lifelong environmentalist (and creator of the Whole Earth Catalog) who sees everything in terms of solvable design problems, three profound transformations are under way on Earth right now. Climate change is real and is pushing us toward managing the planet as a whole. Urbanization — half the world’s population now lives in cities, and essay 80% will by midcentury — is altering humanity’s land impact and wealth.
And biotechnology is becoming the world’s dominant engineering tool. In light of these changes, Brand suggests that environmentalists are going to have to reverse some long held opinions and embrace tools that they have traditionally distrusted… GET THE LECTURE. and the Future of the Environment. by Dr. William Ruddiman. The impact on climate from 200 years of industrial development is an everyday fact of life. Dr. William Ruddiman, a climate scientist at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville and research the author of the controversial new book, Ploughs, Plagues, and Petroleum , argues that humans have actually been changing the essay, climate for dissertation some 8,000 years. Ruddiman takes us through three broad stages of human history: when nature was in control; when humans began to take control, discovering agriculture and a short affecting climate through carbon dioxide and methane emissions; and, finally, the more recent human impact on climate change… GET THE LECTURE.
Dr. Andy Thomson. A Concise Guide to. the Science of Faith. with Dr. Andy Thomson. Sunday, February 12, 2012 at 2 pm. IN THIS LECTURE BASED ON HIS NEW BOOK, psychiatrist Andy Thomson examines the evolution, history, anthropology, sociology, and psychology of methodology secondary data religious beliefs and provides a brief and accessible guide to the exciting new discoveries that allow us to finally understand why and how the human mind generates, accepts, and spreads religious faith and can you in an essay god beliefs. Dr. Dissertation Methodology Data? Thomson is a staff psychiatrist at the University of Virginia’s Student Health Center and prompt the Institute of dissertation research Law, Psychiatry and Public Policy, and maintains a private practice of can you quote the bible in an essay adult and forensic psychiatry in Charlottesville, Virginia. He serves as a trustee of the Richard Dawkins Foundation for Reason and dissertation research methodology secondary data Science.
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Sunday March 25 starting at 2pm. Official Debate Co-Sponsor. “Has Science Refuted Religion?” Sean Carroll #038; Michael Shermer versus. Dinesh D’Souza #038; Ian Hutchinson. Caltech cosmologist and physicist Sean Carroll teams up with Skeptic publisher and science historian Michael Shermer in this epic debate with noted conservative author and King’s College President Dinesh D’Souza and MIT physicist Ian Hutchinson.
Followed by Sam Harris lecturing on Free Will. Lecture starts after the debate. At no extra charge, immediately following the debate is a lecture and book signing on extended essay, Free Will by Sam Harris. This Debate/Harris lecture. is now SOLD OUT. The price of admission covers both events: $10 Skeptics Society members/Caltech/JPL community; $15 everyone else.
Tickets may be purchased in advance through the Caltech ticket office at 626-395-4652 or at methodology secondary data the door. Ordering tickets ahead of time is strongly recommended as this event will sell out. The Caltech ticket office asks that you do not leave a message. Instead call between 12:00 and essays arnold 5:00 Monday–Friday. OUR ANNUAL FUNDRAISING DRIVE IS ON NOW. Help Send Skepticism 101 into the World! Click here to read our new plan to take Skepticism to the next level ! Click here to make a donation now via our online store. Monthly Recurring Donation Options Now Available. We encourage you to choose the monthly recurring donation option.
Simply tell us how long you want your donation to recur (using the drop-down menu on the donation page) and we’ll set up automatic withdrawal for dissertation methodology secondary the amount you select. created by Junior Skeptic Editor Daniel Loxton. I fail to see any skepticism in this article. Essays Arnold? If you plan to continue to publish propaganda as poorly supported as the pseudo-science you frequently criticize, please remove my address from your mailing list. Very disappointing that Skeptic magazine would publish an article wholly lacking in science. Most globall warming believers agree that the “hockey stick” graph is completely inaccurate, yet that is the beginning of this defense. Pathetic. Agreed, there is no skeptical inquiry of the data, only the wholesale acceptance of propagandist tripe. Surely you criticize those who have any trace of religious thought, who you regularly and mercilessly taunt over their beliefs, with more evenhanded analysis than has been shown here. Yes, this is nothing but ridiculous pseudo-scientific alarmist nonsense. Secondary? Global temperatures have not risen for the past fifteen years.
The planet itself is falsifying Prothero’s deceptive scare story. Extended Essay? I am shocked that such a lunatic and dishonest article would be allowed on research methodology, a blog with “skeptic” in its name. And the unreliable Skeptical Science blog is can you in an essay, a George Soros front that repeatedly censors scientific skeptics’ comments. Even more dishonestly, it has taken comments of mine and replaced entire sentences with words I did not write, changing the meaning entirely. They did this without acknowledging to readers what they had done.
Others have complained of the dissertation data, same disreputable tactics, as reported on possible thesis for wuthering heights, the internet’s “Best Science Technology” site (it just won that award for the third time): It seems that with the shameful Peter Gleick episode, all of the methodology data, ethics violations are committed by essay prompt application, climate alarmists. Prothero writes: “…one of two actual climate scientists of the group, Richard Lindzen, is a notorious global warming denier who also denies that smoking causes cancer.” Mr. Prothero is either totally ignorant, or a scurrilous liar; likely both. Prof Lindzen is the world’s pre-eminent climate scientist, with more than 230 peer-reviewed papers published. He heads MIT’s atmospheric sciences department, and his position is clear: for a doubling of CO2 there is dissertation data, approximately a 1°C rise in can you the bible essay temperature, about the same rise from CO2 predicted by the IPCC. To label Dr. Lindzen a “notorious global warming denier” is a reprehensible ad hominem attack, and an outright, provable lie.
A retraction and apology by Mr. Prothero is in dissertation research secondary data order. Furthermore, Prothero’s dishonest charge that Dr. Lindzen “denies that smoking causes cancer” is another outright lie. Dr. A Short Essay? Lindzen only questioned the methodology used in a very sloppy study of second-hand smoke, which many other scientists have also questioned. Prof. Lindzen’s concern was limited only to the study’s questionable methodology; he drew no conclusions whatever regarding smoking and cancer. Prothero owes Dr. Dissertation Methodology Secondary? Lindzen an apology for the mendacious character assassination of an internationally esteemed scientist.
The balance of Prothero’s article is filled with pseudo-scientific, easily debunked nonsense. The hockey stick graphs have been so thoroughly falsified that the IPCC can no longer publish Michael Mann’s alarming MBH99 hockey stick chart. Given the flagrant dishonesty exhibited by Mr. Extended Definition Essay On Hero? Pothrero throughout his article, it would be appropriate to dissertation methodology either provide a rebuttal by one of the many honestly skeptical climatologists who reject the notion of runaway global warming, or re-name this blog “Pseudo-Skeptic.com” to avoid misrepresentation. So now the Skeptics Magazine is selling Prothero’s essay as a stand alone publication and implying that Prothero is a “climate skeptic”. Incredible but true! Sadly, I must concurr with Drs. Mazanec and Scott, Keith and Joseph – in fact,the majority of can you essay comments that find this article wanting! For many years I have admired Dr. Prothero for his excellent work in explaining the evolution of the planet, and life on methodology data, earth.
His book, Evolution of the Earth, and various other of his works have been the stars in my little library. The last chapter of Evolution of Earth, fifth and essays of matthew arnold seventh edition is data, titled, The Best of a short All Possible Worlds? They are a scathing indictment of humanity and all its works. I dismissed this strange diversion from an methodology secondary otherwise excellent body of scientific information as the usual homage to AGW doom that seemingly has to essay be paid by dissertation research methodology secondary data, current authors if they wish to be published. Now I know better. I have now read this chapter again with due attention and I must conclude – he meant every word.
Speaking of the environment, Prothero writes: Above all, we (humans) need to achieve a balance of essay application human population in research methodology order to conserve that environment and to heights preserve our way of life, for unlimited growth disrupts stability of dissertation ecosystems. Statements For Wuthering? Remember Darwin’s early observation that most natural populations tend to be stable in size, but as a comic strip philosopher named Pogo put it in the 1960s, “we have met the enemy, and he is us.” THAT pretty well sums up where Prothero stands. He belongs to methodology data the fringe brigade that carries signs saying – Save the planet – kill yourself! For me it is essays, difficult to understand how a man so deeply versed in the changing nature of our planet and data its ecosytems can come to the conclusions he draws, or make such inept factual errors. On my Facebook page I have listed Prothero, Steven Gould, Carl Sagan and thesis for wuthering heights Richard Dawkins as my inspirations. I am afraid I now must withdraw Prothero! I’m a skeptical person, and the most I can say about anthropogenic global warming is that I’m undecided on whether it is happening. I’m not a creationist, I don’t watch fox news (except as an occasional stress test to data see how long I can handle the stupidity), and I wouldn’t say I’m a “denialist”. I have only quote in an a cursory knowledge climate science. That said, I’m skeptical of dissertation global warming movement purely because of application its tactics. I watched “An Inconvenient Truth” and was just as frustrated as when I’ve watched “The O’Reilly Factor”.
In it, and every other instance of global warming in dissertation research the media, I’ve seen appeals to emotion, argument by authority, the use of straw men, scare tactics, and many more logical fallacies. I hear “If we’re right, the consequences of being wrong are ghastly, so we must assume we’re right and act accordingly.” and essay I cringe because I think of this argument used by the religious to further their beliefs. In short, I am not a denialist, I am an admittedly ill-informed skeptic. I am actively trying to methodology be persuaded that anthropogenic global warming is a thing, and this article, riddled with logical fallacies, has failed to can you quote the bible in an persuade me. I truly hope y’all can do better, because I hate to be lumped in with creationists just because I’m skeptical of overly emotional propaganda. I agree wholeheartedly with your post.
In a movie role, Clint Eastwood asked another character, “You feeling lucky?” I guess you’d answer yes. I agree with your post and put myself squarely in the camp of dissertation data those who dislike being badgered and insulted by thesis statements, skepticism concerning human industrial-based climate change. The 800 pound gorilla in the room is, of course, that because this is dissertation methodology data, purported to heights be a Global problem, irregardless of local sovereign government control, it’s going to methodology require a coordinated Global solution. That means a Global government, which means the point is can you quote the bible in an essay, moot, because that’s not going to happen. The idea that somehow the United Nations is the de- facto Terran government and can make it happen is absurd, because ultimately, all political power comes from the methodology secondary, barrel of a gun or the point of a sword, and as events in Rwanda and Bosnia proved, the UN is incapable of enforcing anything. This whole ‘debate’ between climate ‘alarmists’ and ‘denialists’ is nothing more than an a short extension of the whole ‘liberal’ vs ‘conservative’ paradigm on research secondary, another front. By the way, space colonization is essay, also going to require a United Terran government, so don’t hold your breath on that happening anytime soon. Finally, as I wind the wind down here, just let me say that, as an atheist, I am offended whenever somebody who truly believes this stuff about climate change lumps any skepticism about the science underlying it as ‘anti-science’ and is therefore automatically lumped in as snake-handling fundamentalists who don’t believe the veracity of the theory of evolution or that the bible was written by a sky fairy who created our planet in seven days.
Of course, these same folks don’t seem to want to denigrate the koran or belittle the dissertation secondary data, silly beliefs of essay prompt application Islam. Maybe they don’t want some fool to go Theo Van Gogh on them. Sorry, i had to research secondary data add that last in. You can debunk an “Inconvenient Truth” in with little effort. Research its sources. I’m glad someone said that. This is an absurd propaganda piece, not an arnold honest look at skepticism.
Thanks. I’m amazed that you call climate change “propaganda” and compare it to psuedo-science. I miserably failed comparison. I suggest you keep your subscription to help distinguish illusions from objective truth. I’m amazed that you call climate change “propaganda” and compare it to psuedo-science.
I miserably failed comparison. I suggest you keep your subscription to help distinguish illusions from objective truth. I agree. I also believe Skeptic magazine should remove the quotation from Spinoza on its title page saying in effect ridiculing people who hold different beliefs is not to be tolerated. Dissertation Research Methodology Secondary Data? The Skeptic editor completely failed to remove the of matthew arnold, rather disturbing number of disparaging comments and ridiculing of people who disagree with the dissertation methodology secondary, author. Essay Prompt For Uc Application? One last point: Most of the dissertation research secondary, $$$ to be made on the AGW enterprise is being made by the believers….and the big money is still to come.
An absolutely appaling piece of propoganda that mostly references an unreliable web blog. I agree with Dr Mazanec at #1 and I have to seriously consider my subscription to what is statements for wuthering, now, in my opinion, a discredited magazine. #2) “an unreliable web blog” 10 of 38 links go to SkepticalScience.com – are you calling that an unreliable web blog? It is an educational blog that supports it’s claims with copious reference to actual scientific studies. Are you speaking from dissertation methodology secondary data ideology or can you rationally explain your angry denunciation? Or are their others on the list you object to? Can you justify your objections with specifics?
Yes, skeptical science IS unreliable because of its bare faced advocacy for Mann Made Global Warming ™. The simple reality is that the folks at sks, especially Cook, couldn’t be any less skeptical even if they tried. Actually, this article and the religious zeal expressed by essay, a single commenter is similar to a short interview between the BBC, Whitehouse (former BBC science editor) and Bob Ward (who employs the secondary data, same tactic of telling everyone not to listen to the evil ‘deniers’ that you do). When Bob was limited to the discussion piece he was an empty bag of hot air. His only tactic was to employ the “Plankton Strategy”, named after the essays of matthew, Spung Bob character, of dissertation methodology secondary shouting very loudly and waving his hands about. Sadly for Bob, and those like him, all he achieved that day was to highlight the differences between the creationists who unquestionably believe in on criticism Mann Made Global Warming ™ and true skeptics who question the religious orthodoxy of the religion of Mann Made Global Warming ™.
Ah. I see that “Citizenschallenge” (AKA: Peter Miesler) is down in his mom’s basement again, furiously typing his pointless responses to everyone he suspects of not agreeing with his runaway global warming beliefs. That’s so 1997: no global warming at all since then. That fact would make anyone but a True Believer pretty darn skeptical. And this article by a guy flogging his own book is chock full of misinformation. I could falsify most everything he claims, but why take the time? As someone else pointed out, the Earth is making a fool out of the warmists and their beliefs. So who should we believe, the climate charlatan who’s flogging his dinosaur book in this article?
Or Planet Earth, telling us it’s a phony scare? My money is on Planet Earth. That’s the only true Authority, and it debunks the runaway global warming nonsense. Agreed Ted Black. As a young man, I was drawn to skepticism by Carl Sagan and dissertation research his great book, “The Demon Haunted World.” The idea the extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence has become an intellectual guidepost for essay me ever since. I was thrilled when I found a magazine devoted to the principles of skeptical inquiry. On the issue of catastrophic human-caused global warming, however, Skeptic Magazine has entirely lost its way and has become an example of dissertation research secondary data what it has so long opposed. A scientific theory has been proposed which, essentially, predicts the end of the world if people do not radically alter their behavior. This is an extraordinary claim, though hardly novel.
Religious believers have been making similar claims throughout recorded history. Actual data show modest increases in temperature followed by over 15 years of no statistically significant increases. The models created by the proponents of the theory have proven to be wildly inaccurate. In spite of this, Skeptic Magazine treats actual skeptics as if they were religious heretics or holocaust deniers. The position of Skeptic Magazine on this issue is inexplicable to me and is absolutely shameful. I agree. Can You? What’s interesting is methodology secondary data, trying to determine what type of pressure or inducement was brought to bear on the editors of Skeptic magazine and possible statements website to risk completely destroying their credibility and brand by publishing not just this essay but the original essay a few years ago indicating they were happily on secondary data, the AGW bandwagon, skeptics be damned. Any guesses? the debbil done planted all them fossilz. Now Scientists is blaming regular weather conditions and climate stuff on. Adam’s right to use what the essay about nightmare, Lord give em… to wit: petrol for yer.
suburban and stock car racin’ Rev. Jeeter Jones Hp.D, M.DIV. Dept of Plain Folks Thinking. Bob Dobbs University. A subsidiary of. Reformed Church of the Subgenius.
Pope Bobby II, prop. My question is, if we are truly so concerned about global warming, why aren’t more of us concerned about immigration control — and I mean strict immigration control? If the US is truly a major contributor to secondary pollution-caused climate change, then surely increasing the total population of US polluters is not a good idea (at the current rate, our population is projected to reach 1/2 billion by mid-century). America had been quite responsible about at least keeping her population down until immigration changes tipped the balance. Notice how the left has tried to quote the bible in an divorce discussion of immigration from climate change. Research Secondary? It’s pure hypocrisy and politics. So I must say I, too, am rather skeptical about global warming. Let’s call out the left on its hypocrisy. You are talking politics. Seemed to me Prothero was discussing climatological understanding.
Appreciating the state of climatological understanding should inform the political discussion – but they are two very different things. Hmmm. Your theory would be great if the U.S. was independently causing global warming but it’s not. I fail to see how polluting in Mexico has less of an impact than polluting in the U.S. The outcomes are the same. Possible Thesis Statements? I think the dissertation secondary, fact that the about, “right” is so adamant to fulfill its agenda that billions of dollars are focused on funding fringe science and covering up actual findings by fabricating other scenarios as the problem, like immigration for instance. I totally believe that the earth is in a warming phase.
I don’t however believe most of what is in this article. One single thing is not holey responsible. Something no one takes into research methodology secondary consideration is in year “One” were there approximately 200 million people on earth. In 2011 there were approximately 7 billion. Essay Prompt For Uc Application? Just the heat emitted from the dissertation secondary data, rising population alone would account for extended definition on hero a warming trend and that’s not counting the vastly increasing numbers of animals, also emitting heat, it takes to feed them. Each human on earth gives off approximately 75 watts of dissertation secondary power. Do the math, it’s a giant worldwide furnace. As the worlds population increased things like rice production increased to feed it. Paddy fields are a major source of atmospheric methane and have been estimated to contribute up to 100 million tonnes of the gas per annum.
There are many things that are responsible for the rising temperature now as there will be to the falling one sometime in the future. What are you talking about? There is of matthew arnold, no climatologist that claims “one thing” causes global warming. It’s a complex dance between many different components. CO2 ( other GHGs) happens to be a big daddy in the crowd, and they happens to be the one society is most radically influencing. There is a reason climatologist spend so many years learning and studying the dissertation research secondary, subject. There is can you in an essay, a reason we have a society dependent on the knowledge of highly trained specialists… no matter what field you care to consider.
It seems most unskeptical to think that any dilettante working in a vacuum knows more that thousands of climatologists taking part in an open ‘sharing of methodology data information environment.’ “Just the heat emitted from the definition essay, rising population alone would account for a warming trend and that’s not counting the vastly increasing numbers of animals, also emitting heat, it takes to data feed them.” Sorry, but this is very wrong. All of of the energy humans (and animals) give off comes from food, ultimately plant matter. Plants grow by using sunlight to convert simple ingredients into complex carbohydrates. Definition On Hero? If the plant dies, this matter decomposes again, giving off the energy. Wether it decomposes in a cow, in a human, or in dissertation research data a dung heap makes no difference energetically. Your points just add more reasons why to believe in man made climate change. At this point we need to just get past the denial stage that we aren’t the problem. Only then can we decipher the essay, true variables involved. I would not call London a coastal city. the vast majority of it seems to be more than 40-50km away from the nearest coast.
The Thames is a tidal river. It’s not a question of how far London is from the methodology data, coast, but how high it is above sea level! London is, in of matthew arnold fact, 100-200 meters above sea level, so it won’t be wiped out like say Bangladesh. Floods and storm surge will likely get worse, but for dissertation research secondary London can likely be managed. Future sea level rise could lead to potentially catastrophic difficulties for shore-based communities in a short essay the next centuries: for example, many major cities such as London and New Orleans already need storm-surge defenses, and would need more if sea level rose, though they also face issues such as sinking land. I agree that it is not high above sea level, but the author said it is a coastal city. “coastal city” and “not high above sea level” are different things. There’s a city 40km inland from where I am. it is also not high above sea level, but i would not call it a coastal city. Mortimer Snerd sez. ” got a point there, but you should keep it inder your hat” Rev. Jeeter Jones Hp.D, M.DIV.
Dept of research secondary data Plain Folks Thinking. Bob Dobbs University. A subsidiary of. Reformed Church of the Subgenius. Pope Bobby II, prop. …Richard Muller’s Berkeley group, which was originally attempting to deny the application, evidence of global warming…
To be fair to Prof. Dissertation Secondary Data? Muller (whom I knew in essay about nightmare graduate school) I had no doubt that he was never intending to dissertation methodology deny global warming or do anything other than what he ultimately did – take his best shot at collecting and analysing the data. In fact, he hired his student Richard Rohde to do much of the work, and essays of matthew Rohde was clearly already persuaded the consensus position. Muller is certainly a gadfly and dissertation research methodology data I don’t think his statements were careful, but I never thought that he would do anything other than science. P.S. While I agree with the content of this article, I agree with (1) and (2) that footnoting these statements solely to blogs is far from idea. if they are in fact interested, much of the original references can be found in the IPCC report, which can be had here: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html. Mitch you forgot to thesis heights add that most those blogs listed do a great job of linking to the original sources they make their claims on. As an dissertation research secondary data intelligent, informed SKEPTIC, I must point out: You’ve proven that the temperature is rising, and that man-made CO2 has increased, but shown only a correlation between the two.
The causation is on criticism, ASSUMED. I’m not saying we should sit on our duffs, because doing so could prove fatal. But please–don’t call something proof when it isn’t! An “intelligent, informed SKEPTIC” does not cherry pick their information and willfully ignore all that contradicts their bias. Dissertation Research Methodology? A skeptic is open to having their mind changes as new information dictates. Your claim that “The causation is ASSUMED” is simply wrong.
There is a heck of a lot more that correlation between CO2 and temps going on. Like fundamental physics! For some easy listening try this. Richard Alley explains: Global Warming: It’s Not About the Hockey Stick. From: greenman3610 | Dec 4, 2011 | Or if you want something meatier, here.
The bad kick at the bottom of the article : “Richard Lindzen, is possible thesis for wuthering heights, a notorious global warming denier who also denies that smoking causes cancer.” led me to stop reading it. I have no opinion on secondary, the global warming but I have a pretty good opinion on what a scientific debate should be. And this is not what I have found here. Have you listened to any of for uc Lindzen’s talks? There’s a reason many people feel contempt for his mixing of personaly ideology with science, to say nothing of his many misrepresentations of state of the dissertation, science. sorry about the typos :-( When you disparage people who do not agree with you as “deniers”, you know the in an essay, issue is no longer one of scientific progress but politically-based deception. Hi Michael et al., A simple homework problem I did in dissertation secondary a class on planetary science at Columbia in 1968 illustrates global warming in a simple way. Basically this is the energy balance calculation for an infinite plane. You put in can you the bible in an the input radiation at the top of the atmosphere, albedo, black body radiation from the heated ground (sigma*T^4) and secondary absorption of possible statements heights that radiation on its way back up.
You solve for the equilibrium point and get out the temperature (T) as function of the inputs (like absorption). It is dissertation research secondary, almost a back-of-envelop calculation. What this calulation illustrates is that order-of-magnitude we are putting enough C02 into the atmosphere to have a big effect. There are, of course, feed backs both positive and negative, but if as climate deniers claim, we don’t understand these things well enough, we should conclude that we _should_not _do_the_experiment, since the consequences are severe. Given this simple calculation the shoe is really on the other foot. The deniers need to statements for wuthering heights prove that complex interactions and feedback negate the simple driver of increased absorption. Of course, real science as already done this with the climate models and they do NOT show any such cancellation. The pre-cautionary principle applies when the negative consequences of continuing to bump C02 into our atmosphere are so catastrophic; we shouldn’t do it till Exxon et al., prove the its safety. “The deniers need to prove that…” The catastrophic AGW hypothesis is put forth by the runaway global warming alarmists. Therefore, according to the Scientific Method skeptics have NOTHING TO PROVE.
The onus is completely on dissertation methodology secondary data, those proposing a hypothesis to defend it. That’s the problem with climate “science”. It isn’t science at all because the promoters NEVER abide by a short essay, the Scientific Method. If they didn’t ignore it the dissertation methodology data, debate would be settled because absolutely none of their predictions has happened. When a scientist is consistently wrong about everything, he has to admit that his hypothesis is falsified. That’s the Scientific Method. And you made a ‘Mann Infraction’ by calling people you don’t agree with “deniers”. That negates what you say, because it becomes an about nightmare emotional argument, not a rational argument. Skeptics don’t deny that the climate changes, they know the methodology secondary, climate always changes. It was Michael Mann who tried to essays arnold falsely claim that the climate didn’t change until the industrial revolution. So look in the mirror when you say “denier”.
And no matter what your “experiment” pretended to show, the planet is not agreeing with it. There has been no global warming for 15 years, even while co2 keeps going up. Conclusion: co2 does not have the effect that is claimed. The only dissertation methodology data valid experiment is Planet Earth, and it is saying very clearly that you are wrong to blame co2 for about nightmare global warming. But some people believe their eyes are lying. You could be one of them. You claim that the research methodology secondary, earth has not experienced any warming for the bible in an the past 15 years. The data that I have seen does not agree with your statement.
In fact, the data I have seen says that the secondary, three hottest decades on record were the last 3 decades (1980’s, 1990’s, 2000’s). Would you care to essays arnold share your data? NASA just announced that there has been little change in temperature. But let’s talk about instrumentation: the thermometers used to measure the temperature were not very accurate and required a series of step to dissertation reset each day. Essay Prompt For Uc? These thermometers may have been accurate to dissertation research secondary 2 degrees over 100 degrees. Then consider the human reader and resetter. Not saying there is or isn’t climate change, I don’t think it is can you quote in an essay, important. It is simply a white rich people made up problem. There is dissertation research secondary, more area to gtow, longer growing season and essay a number of good thungs for the poorer nations.
Rich white people who feel this should control their lives should quite telling what to do. I like the current weather so mind your own business. As I replied to a previous post, in a movie role, Clint Eastwood asked another character, “You feeling lucky?” I would think a skeptic want want to dissertation research consult the Boy Scout motto here, “Be Prepared.” If it was good enough for Tom Lehrer, it’s good enough for in an essay me. Don’t know what I’m talking about? Do some research kiddies. In 1968 the data, alarmists were going on about global cooling and statements heights the coming Ice Age. It all goes to show you can fool some of the people all of the time. The Phenomenon formerly known as Global Warming, the great Unfalsifiable Hypothesis. An article that begins with an ad hominem attack loses impact, suggesting scant appeal to reasoned science. My experience in Clinical Trials showed me how easy it is to introduce bias, and computer technology is research methodology secondary data, not yet able to extended definition essay on hero compensate for the many variables in climate.
Just add enough “corrections” to get the result you seek. Weather station readings have been shown to be notoriously unreliable, and satellite readings are relatively recent. Gore’s Scary Movie has enough untruths to make the whole world sceptic, except for the rusted-on believers. When you’ve lived as long as I have, and seen the con men come and go, you learn to relax and watch it happen. Sit back and enjoy the ride. “Weather station readings have been shown to dissertation research data be notoriously unreliable, and satellite readings are relatively recent.” Can you support that claim with any actual factual study? Then you project: “Gore’s Scary Movie has enough untruths to make the whole world sceptic, except for the rusted-on believers.” You speak of “ad hominem attack.” What’s Gore’s documentary got to do with the “science of climatology?” Gore is a short essay on criticism, a laymen, and a politician, he was presenting his understanding to the best of his abilities. He is no scientist and as a politician is prone to over simplification and dramatization and was not representing an in depth nuanced understanding of the dissertation research methodology data, actual climatological community.
Then why did the climate establishment welcome his film? Why are they still publicly supporting some of the bad science in it (while privately condemning it in the same way as sceptics do, as we know from the leaked emails from essays of matthew CRU)? Seriously? The “Weather Station” was a mercury thermometer that required the reader look exactly at the level, then swing the thermometer around their head to reset it. Wind speed was captured on a paper graph using a wind up motor. All this in white wash box that was suppose to be located in methodology the shade. This can be seen on the noaa site. Digital accuracy didn’t show up in any quantities till 1990s. The smugness and personal attacks in this article is very off putting. The author believes that everyone who criticizes the global warming hypothesis is quote the bible, a “denier” and dissertation research secondary accepting bribes from oil companies, and everyone who supports GW is a good and honest researcher in it for the science and not the money. I’m always a skeptic about either side’s argument…but after reading this article I’m losing faith in our ability to scientifically pose an argument…let alont prove one.
And I quote, “If all the glacial ice caps melted completely (as they have several times before during past greenhouse episodes in the geologic past), sea level would rise by 65 m (215 feet)!” An apparently proven scientific fact, yet I quote again from this same arcticle: “The Larsen B shelf had survived all the previous ice ages and interglacial warming episodes for the past 3 million years, and even the warmest periods of the last 10,000 years—yet it and nearly all the extended definition on hero, other thick ice sheets on the Arctic, Greenland, and dissertation methodology secondary Antarctic are vanishing at a rate never before seen in geologic history.” Just to play devil’s advocate, this is just one of the many contradicting scientific facts proclaimed to be true to argue either side of the global warming disbute! Do you think the extended on hero, “past greenhouse episodes” are the same thing as the the “interglacial warming episodes of the dissertation methodology, past 3 million years”? The Earth is older then 3 million years, isn’t it? My dear Indifferent: “And I quote, “If all the glacial ice caps melted completely (as they have several times before during past greenhouse episodes in the geologic past), sea level would rise by 65 m (215 feet)!” An apparently proven scientific fact, yet I quote again from this same arcticle: “The Larsen B shelf had survived all the statements for wuthering heights, previous ice ages and interglacial warming episodes for secondary data the past 3 million years, and even the a short essay, warmest periods of the last 10,000 years—yet it and dissertation data nearly all the other thick ice sheets on essays, the Arctic, Greenland, and Antarctic are vanishing at a rate never before seen in geologic history.”” You seem to be contending a contradiction between the claim to know how much water would be produced if the ice caps were to melt with your apparent claim that the ice caps have never melted. You display chagrin as if you have discovered some kind of contradiction.
Prothero did not claim, contrary to what you say, that the global ice caps had melted at research methodology some point in prompt for uc the past. His argument was about dissertation research methodology, how much water would be produced if the ice melted. It is very easy to calculate how much liquid water would be produced from the melting of heights a known volume of ice. You really don’t have to melt the ice yourself to do this. It’s also fairly easy* to measure exactly how much ice there is in the polar ice caps. *(Well, not _easy_ per se, but it’s a manageable task). True but bear mind that the artic ice cap contributes nothing to the water levels because the dissertation research methodology, ice is essays of matthew arnold, floating in water. So any statement about the ice caps is wrong. Plus if the artic cap melts enough to allow shipping then the world gets cheaper goods. Not a completely bad thing. A statement about Greenland and Antarctic fine. Might be a problem.
For rich white countries. The rest of us just want you to mind your own business and get out of our way. “Geological data show that sea level was virtually unchanged over the past 10,000 years since the present interglacial began.” Check your data. Sea level rose 40 meters in the last 10,000 years. The rise in the past was due mainly to melting of glaciers. Now the rise is due mainly to thermal expansion of seawater. I agree we should prepare for dissertation methodology secondary data global warming. On Criticism? But I think adaptation is more sensible and realistic than prevention. At the rate we are burning fossil fuels, it’s very unlikely we can stop global warming. We should build dikes or move out of coastal areas.
It’s not that hard. The Dutch literally drained the North Sea and research methodology data build their cities on what used to be a sea. Check your data. The rate of sea-level rise hasn’t increased. Not at all. You are repeating other people’s lies. If you know how to compute, see the average sea rise in extended essay last 6,000 years vs. 17 cm last 100 years. Numbers don’t lie, people do. 17 cms, really? Except for rich peoplwith ocean front homes who cares?
So tell the movie stars they have to move from Malibu. And tell to research secondary butt out of essays my life. Dissertation Methodology? Now. 7 billion people at possible thesis heights 75 W per person, that’s 5 x 10^11 W. The sun shines 10^17 W of solar heat on earth, that’s five orders of magnitude higher than our body heat. By your argument, earth should be as hot as hell. Of course most of the heat radiates back to space if not for those greenhouse gases. BTW methane is a minor greenhouse gas compared to CO2 and water vapor.
You must point out: I’ve proven that I dropped the apple and research methodology secondary data it fell on the ground, but shown only a correlation between the two. My conclusion that gravity is the cause is merely ASSUMED. Global warming? Certainly plausible. Cause(s)? Undetermined, probably manifold, far more opaque than clear. Sensible responses? Curb pollution, rein in the power of Big Government central planners to collude with Big Business in churning out self-serving “regulatory” rules, manage energy consumption efficiently, yet curb the impulse to over-engineer an array of “solutions” before acquiring an empirically-based understanding of the complex interactions at about nightmare play in global climate systems. In Dr. Prothero I see a soft-science academic who has convinced himself–and feels compelled to convince others–that a body of research methodology secondary real-world data which lends itself to multiple interpretations most assuredly fits a particular theoretical construct founded on can you essay, a carefully selected set of purely mathematical models.
Yet the family of models to dissertation secondary data which these belong do in fact yield strikingly varied results and essay each has an informationally incomplete basis. It is exceedingly difficult to extract from large-scale real-world phenomena meaningful correlations to such mathematically pure constructs as distribution curves and standard deviations. Tempting as it is to measure variation to a known certainty and to methodology data establish cause-and-effect linkages, Big Nature does not play nicely with our statistical analyses and reasoned projections. An impassioned effort, to be sure, but methinks the a short essay, good doctor would be well served to work on research methodology secondary, dialing back the hubris and histrionics. “ but methinks the good doctor would be well served to work on dialing back the hubris and histrionics.” You’re quite the one to essays arnold talk the way you’ve misrepresented the reality of what’s going on within Climate Science. You reveal a great deal of dissertation research data Willfully Ignoring what you don’t want to see. Perhaps you should consider how much bias clouds your own reading of the essay, available information.
Perhaps you failed to notice that I am not one of your stereotypical straw man “climate change denier” types. So then, please tell me, precisely how have I misrepresented what’s going on within climate science? Perhaps I have failed to make sufficiently clear where I take issue with climate science practice in its current state. I will speak more simply and directly to dissertation methodology data the point. To a great extent, climate science remains too much a closed system–not merely in terms of communications within its community concerning data, interpretation, and modeling–but rather in terms of its failure to acknowledge (1) the vast insufficiency in the number of available data points and (2) the enormous impact of essay prompt very small measurement errors which together severely compromise its ability to project into the future with confidence the outcome of a given set of methodology human inputs into essay nightmare the global climate system. Anthropogenic global climate change: now undeniably true, and perfectly natural at the same time. Humans are like beavers or any other species that modifies its environment to dissertation suit its own purposes. It will consume, pollute, and degrade until it can do so no longer.
What is happening is can you, appalling, terrifying–and immensely interesting. Like yeasts, we will simply die back to sustainable levels. And there’s nothing we can do about it. How specist of you to compare beavers with humans. Were you a true skeptic, you would realize that your argument of “pollution” by man would extend to the beaver land as well. Beavers cause global warming! How droll. Dr. Prothero’s essay reads like a polemic — indeed, like propaganda — filled with anger and laced with _ad hominem_ attacks against his opponents that make them out to to be incompetent or, worse, evil.
This is science? This is skepticism? And why would his opponents be so mendacious? Dr. Prothero implies they’re essentially the same group that routinely denies evolution and other scientific discoveries, and they’re paid for by mustache-twisting fat cats in dissertation research data the oil industry.
What most climate-change proponents overlook is that companies _can’t afford_ to lose this debate, because the likely result would be severe restrictions on extended definition essay, fossil-fuel use, which, in turn, would amount to a death sentence for many huge corporations and cause an secondary economic disaster that would make Europe’s current troubles look like a stroll in the park. (And that, in turn, could cost the lives of essay about thousands, if not millions. Dissertation Methodology Secondary? Better, perhaps, to on hero relocate the data, good citizens of Vanuatu.) But neither side speaks directly to that terrible dilemma. Each side simply argues that the other side is bad and wrong. The real conflict is rarely, if ever, broached. And unless we address that unspoken problem, useful solutions won’t be forthcoming. A quick show of hands: how many believe I’m a climate-change denier? Okay, hands down. Turns out _I’m not_.
I’m pretty sure we humans are CO2ing our way to a prolonged hot spell. But I have yet to hear a cogent argument on essay on criticism, how to solve that problem without creating an equally bad economic snafu. Instead of vilifying the other side, maybe we can use each other’s expertise to brainstorm a breakthrough. Dissertation Research Data? But that requires that we stop hating our opponents. It requires that we stop thinking our anger makes us right. JH: “… filled with anger and laced with _ad hominem_ attacks against his opponents that make them out to to be incompetent or, worse, evil.” Well when they (The denialist echo-chamber) constantly misrepresent what is essay application, know and what is dissertation methodology, unknown, and essay prompt application lie about scientists with ruthless abandon, well then such human emotions will sneak through. When will you scold Watts, Monckton, Lindzen, The WSJ Sixteen, Heartland, SPPI, et al. for the crap they pull . JH: “… and they’re paid for by mustache-twisting fat cats in the oil industry.” Well the evidence speaks for methodology data itself. JH: “What most climate-change proponents overlook is a short, that companies _can’t afford_ to methodology lose this debate, because the likely result would be severe restrictions on extended essay on hero, fossil-fuel use, which, in turn, would amount to a death sentence for many huge corporations and cause an economic disaster…” What you seem to dissertation secondary data overlook is that the climatological understanding is compelled by the accumulating evidence and understanding, not by “proponents.” Earth processes don’t give fig for our corporations or their self-serving justifications.
It is that reality that can not be filtered through the perspective of having to essay about “make the greatest profits at dissertation methodology whatever it takes.” JH: “… But I have yet to hear a cogent argument on extended essay, how to solve that problem without creating an equally bad economic snafu.” That one is truly a bitch of a question. And for dissertation research methodology secondary those of us who have been watching this circus since the mid seventies it is heartbreaking in the extreme. Because you are right, given the essay about nightmare, momentum of the corporate profits-uber-alles paradigm, it’d difficult to research methodology secondary see how society will see itself through our self-inflicted self-destructive streak. JH: “Instead of vilifying the other side, maybe we can use each other’s expertise to brainstorm a breakthrough.
But that requires that we stop hating our opponents. It requires that we stop thinking our anger makes us right.” I sympathize with that sentiment… but… Why should liars and manipulators and cherry pickers be put on equal footing with “good faith learning” from the of matthew, available evidence? I agree that we need each others expertise to brainstorm our way through this mess. But that will never happen so long as most the methodology data, people believe the denialist’s storyline which is application, as vacuous dishonest as the baloney Creationists toss out at dissertation research methodology data people? The only hope we have is to start taking the state of climatological understanding seriously. Can You In An Essay? But alas, so long a dilettantes are given bigger megaphones than seasoned scientists, this horror show will continue.
If we need to add anger into the mix, then it isn’t science anymore. If the facts don’t speak for themselves, getting mad at dissertation data the opponent doesn’t add to essay prompt for uc application the truth. If they’re _that_ twisted and data dishonest, perhaps the proper response should be an embarrassed sadness. Besides, they won’t listen to a word against them. They’ve already made up their minds. All the evidence in the world doesn’t help them understand, because their unspoken concerns about possible thesis statements for wuthering, their own futures and research secondary data the economy haven’t been addressed. Essay On Criticism? Find a way to argue for climate repair that doesn’t threaten to devastate their lives, and maybe you’ll get their attention. To treat the opponents as evil instead of mistaken is research methodology data, politics, not research.
How many peer-reviewed articles in, say, physics or astronomy attack the dissenters as lying lackeys of paid interests? This path leads down a slippery slope. I’m get really suspicious when I hear someone argue, “Trust me! I’m honest and have your best interests at heart, and my opponent’s evidence is a bunch of lies.” At that point, I check to on criticism make sure my wallet hasn’t been stolen. “Find a way to argue for climate repair that doesn’t threaten to research secondary devastate their lives, and maybe you’ll get their attention.” Unfortunately, it appears that these companies would rather buy lobbyists to bury the problem in vacillation than pay clever engineers to devise solutions to the problem. Sniffle. Those evil Capitalists.
Peter Miesler (“citizenschallenge”) says: “Why should liars and manipulators and cherry pickers be put on equal footing…” With that kind of quote the bible attitude you have zero credibility, and you are a big part of the problem with your constant projection. The liars and manipulators are on dissertation, the alarmist side: Peter Gleick has been caught lying and manipulating. In fact, he CONFESSED to it: http://tiny.cc/29x1f. This has been an interesting exercise.
Professor Prothero it has been a pleasure making your acquaintance. I insure my home. Extended Definition On Hero? No community of scientists are telling me there is dissertation methodology, a danger to it that I should prepare for. Essays Of Matthew Arnold? My planet is research methodology secondary, much more valuable than my house. I would like to see the can you quote essay, whole world taking precautions to insure it. – for there are a majority of the worlds scientists telling me that our present lifestyle is endangering it. Do these climate skeptics insure their houses? Selling oil and coal are very big businesses. Of course they would try to protect their income from secondary their sales. But Oil and coal take many millions of years to quote in an essay produce. What is the real value of something that takes millions of dissertation research methodology data years to on hero create?
Is it the price of digging it out and dissertation research methodology secondary data transporting it? It will all be gone anyway in a few hundred years – such a waste of chemical treasures by burning them – because that is the first use we found for possible them! The change to sustainable energy has to come, the only question is when? Now or as late as possible, even if as late as possible means danger to our planet. I’m for dissertation research secondary data changing as quickly as we can. I’m 87 and won’t be around for long – but I like to essay hope that my great grandchildren’s kids will have a planet as exciting as the one I had in the 30s. I was under impression (a mistaken one apparently) that Skeptic magazine and the Skeptic society and research secondary being skeptic in general was all about truth, logic and rational thought only to be confronted in this recent edition by this left-wing hit piece. You don’t need to understand the the bible essay, “science” behind climate change in order to understand this entire issue or debate. Dissertation Secondary? All you need is an essays of matthew arnold understanding of the nature of left-wing politics as it’s been practiced in the last 100 years. Because, that’s all this is dissertation research methodology secondary, “politics” masquerading as science. Nice attack, but do you have any data to back up your claims?
Yes….didn’t it start with the Global Cooling nonsense in the 1970’s, just after the New Left got traction in possible thesis our society? If the debate is conceded, and it’s concluded the globe IS warming and research methodology secondary data the primary cause IS fossil fuel burning, then suspension of most fuel combustion must be the next step. Governments would have to enforce strict limits nearing complete elimination of can you the bible in an fossil fuel consumption. That’s NOT going to happen, even with rising sea levels, rising temperatures, and regional droughts. When fossil fuels are sufficiently depleted, then release rates will drop. Dissertation Research Methodology Secondary Data? I see no chance of a voluntary reversion to definition essay on hero walking instead of driving and a reversion to a non electricity based civilization with universal poverty and a bare subsistence life style. Research Methodology Secondary? Only direct economic necessity will force change.
Doomsday scenarios are not economic necessities. Necessity, not government policy, has been and will be the mother of invention. “An “intelligent, informed SKEPTIC” does not cherry pick their information and willfully ignore all that contradicts their bias. A skeptic is open to extended definition on hero having their mind changes as new information dictates.” All you have done is cherry pick, several of the reviews yousent angry messages to had very valid points. ““Weather station readings have been shown to be notoriously unreliable, and satellite readings are relatively recent.” Can you support that claim with any actual factual study?” Think about that next time the news says the research methodology, storm will pass you buy as its raining outside your house, id say thats the only proof necessary. “Perhaps you should consider how much bias clouds your own reading of the available information.”
This applies to almost everything you have written. it says the of matthew arnold, ocean will rise 1-1.5ft in the next hundred years. Then it says what if it rises 20ft, ok at that rate we have 1,500-2,000 years to solve the problem. Methodology Data? which means we “have” the time to study it more and not just do a quick fix but come up with a perminent solution. This article has a lot of opinions but very few peices of hard evidence that can not be argued for statements for wuthering ether side. citizenschallenge before you start in on dissertation, my credibility id like to admit that like “YOU”, i have none, but my own personal opinion. Why is this article in a sceptical website? The one thing it entirely denies is any idea of for uc scepticism. It is the utter antithesis of the purpose of this site, even where it does not contain blatant misrepresentations!
““Weather station readings have been shown to methodology data be notoriously unreliable, and. satellite readings are relatively recent.” Can you support that claim with any actual factual study?” Why don’t you behave like a sceptic, and find the studies? They are easy to track down. Around 90% of US surface stations are sited so as to give uncertainty of 1 degree or greater – i.e. more than the prompt for uc, entire supposed warming. Most of Canada is now represented by a single weather station.
Bolivia by none at research secondary data all. Australia and New Zealand both introduced “corrections” that represent the whole warming trend there, and the organisations which did so refuse to statements give out any explanation for the “corrections”. Russia’s own researchers have complained that few of their stations are used in dissertation research methodology secondary the main temperature sets, and of matthew arnold that if you use all then their warming trend disappears entirely. Modern temperature sensors in the sea have recently proved that the older ones give very poor data. Dissertation Data? The data are still being used from the a short essay, older ones, or were until recently. If you were a sceptic you would know about dissertation research methodology secondary data, this information.
You might doubt it, but at least you would know the rather strong concerns. Because the AGW movement is essentially political, tragically we can no longer trust the actual data that is being gathered by a short essay, the “believers”. Questions for methodology secondary data the self proclaimed Septics. Was there a MWP? Was there a LIA? Have global temperatures been increasing since the extended essay on hero, LIA? What is the right temperature for the Earth? What predictions have the climate models gotten right? Am I a denier if I disagree with you?
Do you think sweeping accusations, broad generalizations and ad hominem, make you a credible scientist? In my opinion, it places you squarely in the activist camp. Very little scepticism here. I assume that this article is a spoof – A random collection of dissertation methodology unsubstantiated and a short essay on criticism frequently untrue claims that the author has lifted off the web; An illustration of the gibberish that results when people forget their skeptical manifesto. The usual dishonest smear tactics – Lindzen does not deny that smoking causes cancer. Research? Where did you get that from? Read it on extended definition, the internet? Oh look – there’s a crack in a glacier – what more proof could we want of man-made global warming?
There’s a graph of dissertation research some tree-rings and some dodgy statistics tacked on to temperature data that’s been ‘adjusted’ by climate scientists. (See the paper by can you quote the bible essay, statisticians McShane and Wyner for their opinion of these ‘reconstructions’). On point 2, the dissertation secondary, Antarctic isn’t melting as you claim – in fact some Antarctic ice sheets are actually thickening DOI: 10.1126/science.1200109 and Antarctic sea ice extent is increasing. On point 3 the latest news recently is that Himalayan glaciers have not melted in the last 10 years. The claim about sea level rise over the last 3000 years seems to have been lifted straight from wikipedia! And wikipedia says “may” and gives no citation. Anyway, I am sure you know all this, and the article was just a joke to test the skeptical credentials of your readers. A spoof? I hope you are right, but the AGW believers I know think just like the author of this essay.
Figure 5 is essays arnold, a clear manipulation of the data, temperature data sets. Where does this figure come from and essay about who produced it? I would expect some at eSkeptic to provide this information! I call spoof. No article on a website called eskeptic could be so ludicrous otherwise. People who are unsure the current warming is completely manmade and will lead to runaway feedbacks so far unproven are deniers like the holocaust deniers. Hmm. Just in case anyone is dumb enough to not look at research methodology secondary this article skeptically, here is possible thesis statements, nasa’s take on the pine glacier crack, note that they state on several occasions that calving is natural and this crack is no different: I am neither a denier nor believer.
I am a get of dissertation secondary data my wallet and quit taxing me ‘ier. Here is my message: I like the weather, I drive a prius because I pay lee taxes that way. I have a small carbon footprint because I am cheap. I am strongly skeptical about of matthew arnold, most things except for one thing: Climate change is generally a bunch of hypocrites trying to tell me how to live. Please just buzz off and leave me alone. You are useless. Why does the AGW crowd takes the myopic, bi-polar view of dissertation research ‘believe us or you’re a denier?’ If you believe in GW, but doubt man is the cause, well, that’s just fence sitting. In other words, you’re not with us then you’re against us. Well, Dr. Prompt Application? Prothero, it’s called independent thought, it’s part of being a skeptic.
I don’t have a book to sell, nor am I chasing tenure, nor am I seeking grant money, nor do I have a reputation to maintain, nor an ego to methodology secondary feed, so that means I lack many influences, both internal and external, that restrict my judgment. I look at extended the science being conducted, work the raw data when I can, and read what is being said on all sides. What people don’t say is as important as what they do say. I’m a free thinker that is research secondary data, informed and able to make up my own mind. I see words like junk science, conspiracy, and deniers (amongst others) being thrown around by either side or both. Essay About? Calling something junk science has some strong implications, so I will refrain from that, but the history of science is full of dissertation methodology it, and at times been dominated by it. The ivory tower of science is not infallible. You can point to Cold Fusion as a triumph of debunking junk science, but you also have to point to plate tectonics. Essays? It was rejected when first proposed. Even Einstein backed the belief that the dissertation research methodology, earth has always remained this way. You have to look at the meteor that wiped out the quote the bible essay, dinosaurs, I am certain you are familiar with this, as a paleontologist.
It practically took the death of a generation to finally gain acceptance. Sir Fred Hoyle denied the Big bang theory, even coining the term out of ridicule. Science is research, self-correcting, but it is not an instantaneous process. If you want to support AGW by using numbers of scientists that support it, numbers of supporters does not equate to extended evidence. Just take a look at Young Earth creationism. 40-50% of US adults believe it. Dissertation Methodology? That’s some 150 million people. Essays Arnold? Can 150 million people be wrong? Conspiracy, no. Idiocy, lies, collusion, and exclusion, yes. Deniers, they’re definitely out there, but while more of the nuts appear on the denier side, the believers are herding to AGW like sheep.
It’s a religion, only with a bit of science tainted by faith. The flavor of AGW nuttiness is the absolute denial of data any other possibility, the sun doesn’t affect the climate, water has no effect on climate, Venus is 96% CO2, hence CO2 is the only cause of GW. Other things can influence it, but CO2, that’s the big daddy of AGW. The energy output of the nightmare, sun does influence the earth, water has an dissertation secondary effect on regulating temperature. Possible Thesis For Wuthering Heights? Venus has no water, and dissertation methodology data receives approximately twice as much luminosity at the earth. Is it inconceivable that double the amount of energy a planet receives has no affect what-so-ever? If you support AGW, it can’t be allowed into the debate. There is no room for anything but the mindless belief in AGW.
I’ve read both sides of the possible statements, argument (more of the data, AGW side than the other, I’m seeking why they believe it) and am not convinced there is a single shred of evidence linking CO2 to GW. The Antarctic ice cores clearly demonstrate that temperature variations are more often than not *followed* by CO2 variation, sometimes the definition essay on hero, other way around. In fact there are numerous instances where they are moving in opposite directions. It looks more like temperature influences CO2. And even more like they act independent of each other. Of course, scientists don’t like inexplicable changes; they kind of dissertation research methodology secondary data like to believe that they know it all.
Obviously while paying lip service to the caveat that they don’t know everything. Thesis Statements For Wuthering Heights? To admit there is more going on dissertation data, than they understand is to admit their limits. AGWers see a correlation and use climate models to confirm causality. Climate models are the only piece of essay prompt for uc application *evidence* that link CO2 to temperature increases. This is called Confirmation Bias, one of dissertation methodology data many ways that reasoning can falter. As a member of the editorial board of definition on hero Skeptic magazine, you should be able to get a hold of Dr. Secondary? Shermer’s Baloney Detection Kit. I highly recommend it to everyone. Thesis For Wuthering? It is an extremely valuable tool for critical thinking. The temperature increase has stalled for 15 years now (apparently it hasn’t received the memo that CO2 is still rising), the sun is headed into a minimum, and the oceans are flipping from warm to cold mode, Meanwhile, the debate rages on uselessly, AGWers can’t conceive of research methodology secondary data anything besides CO2 affecting climate, policy is being made on scant evidence and essay for uc application people want to wreck the economy to prove they’re right. I could go on, but the problems with the A in research secondary data AGW has more to do with politics, money, reputation, ego, emotion, psychology, and human nature than it does with GW.
These problems are addressed very well in Cynthia Crossen’s book, Tainted Truth. And I don’t want anyone acusing me of selling a book. One good thing that has come out of all of this is it has encouraged us to be a bit more environmentally friendly and to look at utilizing our resources better. “Doubt is the about nightmare, beginning, not the end, of wisdom.” – George Iles. You’re right, a large number a scientists claiming AGW doesn’t, itself, count as evidence to research secondary the very claim they’re making. But doesn’t it count for something?
If 1,000 out of 998 cancer specialists are all coming to the same conclusion that a person has cancer, that, by itself, isn’t meant to be taken as direct evidence that she has cancer, but it does imply that the probability that she has cancer is extremely high. This is because an essay prompt argument from dissertation secondary data qualified authority (in the cancer example, a near consensus) is quote in an essay, intended to be taken as an dissertation research data inductive argument (a probabilistic argument). That is, if those making the a short on criticism, claim are legitimate specialists on the subject, and if that claim is relevant to their credentials, then that claim is a strong claim, i.e. Dissertation Secondary Data? it follows with a much higher degree of probability than otherwise; and that degree of probability increases as more specialists and experts are in agreement with the essay nightmare, claim. So if Dr. Prothero is right, that ‘98% of those scientists who are actually doing the research’ on dissertation research methodology secondary data, the relevant matter are in agreement with AGW, then it most certainly counts for something– something that truly merits all of our attention.
(Don’t take this reply as a rebuttal to your whole comment, but rather that one paragraph) Correction: 998 out of 1,000 :) No problem, I knew what you meant. Of course if two of those doctors had multiple personalities that were also doctors agreed as well, your original statement would be valid. Essay About Nightmare? :-) I understand the weight of dissertation research secondary data numbers, and agree with you whole heartedly. But the weight of numbers has been wrong before, because people are fallible; hence my examples about plate tectonics and the metor that wiped out the dinosaurs. Essays Of Matthew Arnold? Numbers do have value, but don’t constitute proof. Following Carl Sagan’s advice, I prefer to steer clear of ‘authorities’ on any subject. Experts are fine. We also have to methodology data understand what an expert in climatology is. Essays? There are no climatologists per se; they are scientists who are experts in various fields, i.e. geology, weather, oceanography, and how it relates to climate.
Climatology is too big to be encompassed under a single field. Research Methodology Secondary? They have some cross-training in definition essay the other areas to dissertation research secondary data help give them a broader understanding, but people being people, this broader understanding is essays, never perfect. Any lawyer will tell you that they are experts only in their area; they may give you some general advice in other areas, but always with the caveat that they aren’t experts and you should seek someone who specializes in that area. I believe the experts are right, there has been a warming trend, I just think they are barking up the wrong tree. Correlation is not causality. “The temperature increase has stalled for 15 years now (apparently it hasn’t received the memo that CO2 is still rising), the sun is headed into a minimum, and dissertation methodology the oceans are flipping from essay for uc application warm to dissertation research methodology cold mode, Meanwhile, the debate rages on a short on criticism, uselessly, AGWers can’t conceive of anything besides CO2 affecting climate, policy is being made on scant evidence and research methodology secondary people want to a short on criticism wreck the dissertation secondary, economy to prove they’re right.” The data provided above directly contradicts your claim that “the temperature increase has stalled for 15 years now.” The “debate rages on uselessly” because people like you either are not competent or unwilling to debate facts in an honest and open manner. Thanks for your opinion, but in fact global temperatures have declined as co2 has continued up:
Dr Prothero says “follow the money” to see who is supporting the deniers. What he doesn’t advocate is to follow the money to see why the supporters are supporters. They all live on grant money supplied by other believers. There will never be a reasoned discussion of this topic until ALL of the money is removed from the discussion. Dr. Mann of hockey stick fame? $3.5 million from the NSF in a short the current administration. I am a process guy. I’ve taken the time to research methodology secondary data look at the ice core data plots (which don’t agree with the article) that have been replicated and validated as reliable and on criticism noticed a few details. When you look at the plots, you see that the current temperatures are not as high as the medieval warming period. Dissertation Research Methodology Data? You will also notice that the current warming trend began about 100 years before the essays arnold, Industrial Revolution kicked off the rapid increase in carbon dioxide.
You will notice that the methodology, RATE of temperature increase didn’t change when the carbon dioxide increase started, and has in fact, gone sideways since the essay nightmare, 1930s. Research? The fact that both temperature and carbon dioxide increased simultaneously is coincidental, not causative. There is a short on criticism, a lot of noise in the data and Dr. Prothero is correct when he says that the weather in any given year doesn’t prove much. There is nothing in the plot that would make me ‘adjust’ the process because of carbon dioxide. The current temperatures are still within the normal variation from the data, nominal. The plot for the last 10,000 years is consistent with the plot of a short essay almost all of the high temperature precesses that I have managed.
We thought that any process that stayed within =/- 3C was stable and didn’t adjust the energy inputs until the dissertation methodology secondary, process variable wandered outside that band. There was a lot of random wandering within the band and thesis statements for wuthering heights a lot of noise that expanded the plot band width. No one has ever been able to write a computer program that will predict the future behavior of one of these simple, small processes. The reason that I’m not concerned about the dissertation methodology data, 10,000 years is essay about nightmare, that the process plots are all related to the mass of the process. A small unit will present that plot in an hours time, a large unit will present that plot in a day, the earth is a bit heavier and even slower to respond. This is the thermal equivalent of the maneuverability difference between a jet ski and an aircraft carrier. Since the ice cores are limited (you come to the bottom of the ice), other researchers have started work on dissertation methodology secondary, ocean sediment layers. Their data is not yet published, but the preliminary reports have said that the cores validate the ice core data and nightmare have traced the same 100,000 year ice age cycle back through 20 cycles. Dissertation Research Secondary? I have no idea how far back they will be able to go. One interesting comment about the preliminary results is that these cores have identified both interglacial and glacial periods that have same nominal temperatures and patterns as all of the other periods, but also have CO2 levels that are 10 times greater than the current level.
It will be interesting to see how the discussion continues once this data is replicated, verified, and published. I’m disappointed that Skeptic would publish Dr. Prothero’s comments as representing the ‘real’ truth. He is too selective in choosing his sources and stays away from the ice core data since it destroys his whole argument. Do better next time. I thoroughly enjoyed your comments. Your statement about the grant money is spot on.
I highly recomment the book Tainted Truth. It came out around 1992, but the conclusions it draws are still valid. There’s money to be made and a chance to thesis statements for wuthering make a name for yourself. By the time anyone finds out, you’re not likely to get called on it…unless someone leaks your faulty code on the internet. I work intimately with the gov’t everyday. Dissertation Research Data? I watch as people change things for the sake of a bullet on their performance review. They wreck things, declare success, move onto a new job.
Eventually, someone identifies the problem that was created, and reverses the prompt application, trend…maybe. The original havoc wrecker is never actually taken to task on how he/she screwed things up. Before I decided to drop it, I was going to point out as well that the industrial revolution occurred well after temps started rising. While we had the capability, the industrial revolutuion really didn’t get into full swing until 1830’s or so, and mainly in England. You don’t find many people who are willing to methodology data work with the raw data themselves. I’ve been derided for genertaing my own plots from the ice core data. The detractor dismissed my efforts, highlighting my lack of ‘expertise.’ Plotting is basic algebra. When plots are generated and sqeezed down into a minisclue picture, you lose a lot. Essay? I prefer finer granularity.
It was what convinced me that temp and CO2 weren’t really all that related. Ah yes, the “international conspiracy” argument. Dissertation Methodology? It’s all about the essays of matthew, grant money, eh? This is a good example of an research data ad hominem argument, since it does nothing to rebut the arguments provided above. You talk about generating temperature data from ice cores, but you do understand that the thesis statements for wuthering, most you could be doing there is dissertation research methodology secondary, dependent on some mathematical model, yes? It is far too simplistic to say that this is “basic algebra.” If your model is extended definition essay, wrong, then your algebra will give you bad numbers. Ad hominem – to attack an opponent’s character rather than answering his argument.
Funny you should attack me with that exact tactic, then accuse me of dissertation research it. I never called it a conspiracy, in thesis for wuthering fact, even doubted (in an earlier post) that there was a conspiracy. Dissertation Methodology? To me it’s more like ignorant trust and the “good ol’ boys club.” The fact is that as long as human beings have greed and pride, the love of money and prestige will always have a corrosive effect. Science is not immune to them, nor is on criticism, it an infallible authority. Secondary? People who doubt GW don’t have anything to gain, but a lot to risk when going against the grain. Science is the bible in an, not a white tower of holy knowledge handed down from on high. Plate tectonics is not real (Einstein denied it), thalidomide is safe, our Solar system is the dissertation methodology data, universal planetary model, a meteorite did not wipe out the dinosaurs; science’s list of mistakes is humongous. But it’s greatest strength is its ability at self correction. Sadly, (IMO) it sometimes takes the death of the of matthew arnold, reigning generation for the old paradign to die and a new ideas to become accepted. I’ve been on several forums and AGWers tactics are all the same, spin the wheel and attack the dissertation methodology secondary, scumbag denier:
Tab 1: Call their argument ad hominem. Tab 2: Question their ability to reason. Tab 3: Call their arument a conspiracy. Tab 4: Refer to can you the bible in an an authority, topic need only be tangentally related. Tab 5: Call their argument a “straw man”
Tab 6: Insult them. Tab 7: Refer to “trick” data and dissertation methodology data call it a common object, i.e. hockeystick. For maximum effect, spin multiple times. You AGWers are all the essays of matthew arnold, same, you have an extreme belief that people are incapable of thinking for themselves. Only an dissertation methodology infallible authority has the power to declare what is. “You cannot look at the data and possible for wuthering heights come to your own conclusion, because you are too stupid.” You all vehemently attack and provide no real proof. Methodology Secondary? “The closest thing to proof probably comes from using climate models.” (The Open University (2007); S104 Exploring Science, Book 1 Global Warming Section 8.3, pg. Essay Nightmare? 132) This textbook is methodology secondary, being distributed to UK (home of EAU) university science students today (2013), the future generation of science.
Climate models are extremely subject to definition essay bias confirmation and are poor substitutes for reality. World temperatures have been stable since 1998 and now fall below the predicted models, yet EAU says GW is research methodology, still going on. It may begin to rise, or dip and rise, or just fall, only time will tell. There is no such thing as a climatologist. Climatology is a congomerate of different fields of science. Scientists, like lawyers, doctors and engineers, specialize in one fields, and only have a passing knowledge in other fields. CO2 has been rising since the extended definition essay on hero, industrial revolution, no denying it, but the industrial revolution didn’t come into full swing until the 1820s, the point it would really start to have an impact on CO2. Temperatures have been rising a century before then.
The icecores show CO2 and methodology data temperature (often) moving in opposition to each other, with CO2 following temperatures by hundreds of years, and sometimes doing its own thing. For proof, plot the raw data and see what happens. So, unless CO2 is the secret ingredient in time travel, CO2 appears to be affected by temperature, in opposition to what AGWers say. What struck me the can you, most about the climategate emails was the dissertation methodology, fact that several AGWers celebrated the death of people who didn’t just believe them. It shows an essay about extreme lack of humanity on the part of the celebrants. And for the record, I do NOT deny global warming, I DOUBT the purported cause.
This can serve as a reply to Dr. Prothero. But this ought to sting a bit. “While the disparity of forces puts the financial interests and media support firmly in the alarmist camp, the sceptics have some obvious strengths. The first and research methodology secondary data most obvious is an can you quote the bible essay eye to detail and meticulous picking apart of data among a sizeable camp of sceptics. Methodology Secondary Data? They are used to poring over about nightmare, data, of dissertation research looking behind the obvious and of teasing things out of the most unlikely sources. These skills are highly prized in essays of matthew sceptic circles – just as they used to be prized in scientific circles. We see this at work not just in the deconstruction of the dissertation research secondary, hockey stick, but in the way that the IPCC reports were dissected and the references checked (and often found to be from non-peer reviewed literature), or the BEST temperature record found to be at essay odds with what Richard Muller was claiming it said or… Again and again the sceptic camp shows itself to be worthy of the name. Nothing is taken on trust, everything is challenged and methodology data the data checked.
In Gleick’s case this process happened very quickly. The allegedly forged document was checked and found to have come from a different source and different time zone. The writing style was shown to be different to the other documents. And, taking things a step further, a number of voices suggested it was Peter Gleick very early on. This is the sceptic blogosphere at work – and it shows why, despite the disparity of money and media, the alarmists know they are losing. It’s just ironic that Gleick fell victim to the very thing that his paranoid fantasy ignores. ” As a young fellow, on the continent of essay prompt for uc Antarctica during the summer of 1995, I remember a Geology Department chair of a prestigious East Coast University, tell me over a bottle of cheap beer. that “Without a crisis, there is no grant money.” In my skeptical opinion, that is all that this is. Just claptrap, words to make money. Sorry, the year was 1975, but the thought remains the same. Why don’t people understand the dissertation research methodology secondary, concepts of reality and essays of matthew faith?
Being a skeptic of dissertation methodology secondary data climate change is like being skeptical of humans needing oxygen, food, and water to essay live. Honestly, where do some of you get this idea that tangible, verifiable, reproducible data is interpretive like religion or philosophy? This isn’t a debate over who’s version of God is the right version. This isn’t a debate over the interpretation of someone’s dreams. It shouldn’t even be a debate. It really is that simple. Fact and “belief” are not one in the same. Dissertation Methodology Secondary? There is no “kool aid” to drink. Extended Essay On Hero? Denying (again) tangible, verifiable, reproducible data is nothing more than choosing ignorance over knowledge.
I figure they just feel lucky. Being a skeptic of dissertation secondary data climate change is based on the climate being one of the most complex areas known to mankind. The temperature and even the sea level change from of matthew moment to dissertation methodology secondary data moment in in an essay every location, and we’ve never really needed accurate or long term data anyhow as meteorology is for short term forecasts and climatology is a fairly new discipline mainly set up in the 70s with CRU. I’ll just give a few established figures, mainly from the IPCC, such as the 33C difference between the surface and deep space attributing 1C to 260ppm of CO2. Methodology Secondary Data? Double that and you get 2C. Essay? Add feedback and you have to wait and methodology secondary data see. The models complete in 2100 which is impossible to observe as we’ll all be dead by then, certainly when the projection was made. At 390ppm the rise attributed to CO2 of the total 0.8C is 0.4C. For Wuthering? That is secondary, slightly under the 1C, implying a slight negative feedback. Normally in a scientific experiment you observe as you go along, and with a linear system adding CO2 with evaporating water vapour providing positive feedback you’d say after half the time then the current measurements were likely to extended on hero continue. The laws of physics do not allow for a heat transfer from warm to secondary cool in a jerky way, or the evaporation of the ocean or a puddle.
So logically the ocean is clearly not adding to the greenhouse signature of CO2 or it would have risen more than the base figure. Once you have the fact that so far the essays arnold, temperature has risen less than the lowest estimate for no growth in CO2 and the sea level rise is dissertation research, currently heading for another 8-9 inches this decade, it makes me wonder how anything else can be relevant, as once the extended essay, big picture (including the methodology secondary data, growth of the antarctic despite what our author here has said, NASA’s own figures) presents a range of figures consistent with normal variations, then everything else is pretty hard to grasp. It’s very easy to claim that colder winters in Europe mean nothing, and of matthew arnold when temperatures stop going up and the sea level drops 10mm in two years it’s irrelevant, but most people will start doubting you then, and you will lose support. And then when, after claiming the world’s longest chain of research methodology glaciers was losing billions of gallons of water a year new data showed they hadn’t changed for a decade many more would leave the ship if they’d been given an opportunity to read it. Do you understand better now?
“Being a skeptic of prompt for uc climate change is like being skeptical of humans needing oxygen, food, and data water to live… It shouldn’t even be a debate. It really is that simple.” So we shouldn’t have a debate, is that it? Sorry, but there is a debate and thesis for wuthering the skeptics are winning it, as we can see in this thread and everywhere the discussion takes place (except at anti-science blogs like John Cook’s; a juvenile cartoonist who censors out skeptical comments). Skeptics aren’t ‘denying climate change’. Like alarmists everywhere, “Only facts please” ignores the Scientific Method. Per the Scientific Method, the methodology, onus is entirely on essay prompt for uc application, climate alarmists to defend their hypothesis.
They have totally failed: not one prediction of catastrophe or climate disruption has ever happened, and there is no indication that there is research methodology, any kind of a problem due to co2. A Short Essay? The onus is dissertation research, not on skeptics, who have nothing to prove . The job of extended definition skeptics is to methodology secondary tear down the runaway global warming hypothesis, and statements for wuthering heights they have done a superb job of it, poking holes in all the alarming scare stories, one after another. Skeptics know that the climate always changes, and it has changed a lot more before the Holocene, when co2 levels were very low. Dissertation Research Data? Temperatures have also been much higher in statements the geologic past, with no ill effects. Co2 has been up to research methodology 15 times higher without causing any runaway global warming. Can You Quote The Bible In An? The planet has also gone into Ice Ages when co2 was many times higher than now, and it has entered ‘hothouse’ epochs when co2 was very low. On all time scales over the past 700,000 years the rise in dissertation co2 has always followed the rise in temperature.
A warmer ocean outgases co2 just like a warm Coke, and vice versa. The evidence shows that while co2 may have a minuscule effect on temperature, it cannot be the quote, driver of climate change that the alarmists claim. Dissertation Research Secondary? There is just no empirical evidence of that being the can you quote the bible essay, case. Methodology? (Remember that models are not evidence. Raw data is evidence, ice cores are evidence, but computer models are only tools, and not very accurate ones.) There are no verifiable measurements showing X amount of temperature rise for for wuthering Y amount of additional co2. It is methodology data, only speculation, which is the Conjecture stage of the Scientific Method. To be a Hypothesis it must be testable, and can you in an essay AGW is dissertation secondary data, not testable in the real world. Those who still believe Michael Mann’s hockey stick chart (which shows almost no temperature change before the industrial revolution) are denying climate change, not skeptics. Mann tried to claim that the Little Ice Age didn’t happen, despite ice core evidence from both hemispheres. Mann’s claim has been so thoroughly falsified by McIntyre McKitrick that the a short on criticism, IPCC can no longer even publish his MBH99 chart. The debate is not about “climate change”.
That is methodology, a red herring argument. The true debate is essays arnold, about whether co2 causes “climate change”. Data? But there is no empirical evidence showing that co2 has any effect. Radiative physics says that it should have an effect… but where is it? For fifteen years there has been no global warming. Therefore, the can you quote in an, conclusion must be that the effect of methodology co2 is much smaller than previously thought. The fact that Only Facts Please uses the can you in an essay, modifiers “verifiable,” and especially, “reproducible” in regards to “data” (of the climatic variety) shows clearly that he/she has no clue about research data, actual science and is merely regurgitating some science-y sounding terms she/he read somewhere. Feynman called this going-thru-the-motions-but-not-understanding-the-underlying-processes type of science “Cargo-Cult Science,” but since Only The Facts is clearly not a scientist, Science Groupie, or Scientific Wannabe, would probably be more appropriate. The AGW “believers” I know are so rigid and fanatical I no longer trust any data they have gathered….I assume they threw out findings that do not agree with their viewpoint and also indirectly manufacture data to support their viewpoint. How long have you got?
Besides affirming the first comment what on earth has this piece of UN propaganda got to do with the Skeptic magazine? Firstly, cutting and pasting old stuff written by (a non-climatologist John Cook) Skeptical Science is hardly journalism, let alone scientific innovation, it is repeating a partisan site purely in existence to quash new data as it arises when it disagrees with AGW. Secondly some established new data has been ignored, for example the antarctic has been growing at 1% a decade for some time, containing 90% of the world’s ice. How are we supposed to can you the bible in an essay have confidence in a writer who after simply copying most of someone else’s work (not a climatologist) now makes such fundamental claims which are not based in reality. Next, we have a cherry picked by using a single temperature graph, one chosen by the IPCC from four, two similar but not as sharp rise, and one fairly different. I can list pages of dissertation research methodology secondary major alterations to complete the result, but just a few include the multidecadal oscillation of 60 years, as the a short essay on criticism, oceans warm and cool with the motion of the earth, recorded since 1680, and every 30 years has a low and high point.
The anomaly (a questionable device, less easy to relate to and less transparent than direct figures) was set at the average point of 1980, oddly not the median but the low point of the cycle, making the steep rise inevitable. Many of the measurements were at times only 25% of the earth was covered, before satellites, and coincidentally the research secondary, rise came the day the satellites were used. Did they cause the a short essay, warming possibly as the correlation is dissertation research, perfect as well? His discussion of quote the bible in an essay politics is crucial outside the dissertation research secondary, scientific area. Quote The Bible In An? He accuses deniers (a term deliberately used to dissertation research methodology data compare anyone who disagrees with them with Nazis, very scientific), of being right wing and believers liberals. Now although that appears to can you the bible be roughly the case, it is irrelevant. Research Methodology Secondary? Science is nothing to do with politics, and thesis statements dividing society in two to convert the methodology secondary, disbelievers is a religious or totalitarian route, the extended essay on hero, atmosphere doesn’t have a political opinion and introducing political philosophies into dissertation secondary what is meant to be a demonstration of science is a leakage of the a short essay, author’s true agenda. He also leaked that there is no such thing as big oil, which is research, absolutely right. Although the climate and the fact oil will eventually run out is the sort of can you quote non-sequitur which would get any student an F in an essay, as even if oil was unlimited and it really was harmful then people would still stop using it. As it is indeed running out we therefore need alternatives for dissertation when it does. Essay? What’s that got to do with the climate?
And this from a PhD? Where are editors when you need them? Anyway, the term is ‘energy companies’. Data? They make a profit from energy, whatever the source. So with subsidies to allow huge profits from wind power and the like then they follow the money as required by their shareholders. That’s why Shell and essay prompt BP helped fund the CRU and dissertation methodology continue to campaign for nightmare climate action. Restricting oil exploration and use makes their assets far more valuable by dissertation research methodology, raising the prices, as do free carbon credits they sell for billions. Overall I am quite relieved at the end of this, as if this is the best he can do to convince people (supposed to be skeptical as well) man has changed the climate there isn’t much there behind it. I taught for some years and essays arnold besides the dissertation research secondary, obvious plagiarism (even with giving credits, using half of someone else’s website to write your essay is plagiarism as you are meant to at least rewrite and adapt it to the bible in an the piece you are doing) if a student of mine turned this out as evidence for man made warming I’d have had to dissertation methodology secondary put ‘see me’ and explain how to write an essay and nightmare what scientific method means. Putting in clearly irrelevant and entirely political points while trying to present a case for science was an excrutiating journey through every error a new writer can ever make and a few more all rolled into one dire page of utter drivel. This PhD is clearly no more earned than Obama’s Nobel Prize and secondary data if this was a driver I’d want them to retake their test.
I completely agree with you. The interesting question is why has the Skeptic Magazine put its brand and stated purpose in such serious danger by publishing what is little more than a politically based diatribe? Really pathetic article, for all the reasons ably summarized by many of the commentators. Won’t be subscribing to this magazine if that’s the best it can do. The comments were great though! I read the whole article looking for can you in an essay the part that would go from correlation to causation, thinking that surely any credible scientist would understand the dissertation, difference between the two. I was unable to find it though – can anyone point it out to me so that this doesn’t turn out to possible for wuthering heights be a complete waste of time? The only dissertation research secondary proof is provided by climate models.
Figure 2 is thesis statements for wuthering heights, my favorite, always… anyone familiar with science or engineering would look at dissertation research methodology figure 2 and thesis statements say, “gee, it looks like just about methodology data, every 100 thousand years, the earth cools off dramatically… I wonder what causes that?” and then goes on to extrapolate from the of matthew, same data… “y’know, from this graph, I’d say that we’re due for another Ice Age pretty soon!” Perhaps a skeptic might look at the article and figure 2 and research methodology data wonder whether our release of quote the bible CO2 and other allegedly “greenhouse gases” might be forestalling or postponing the next Ice Age. Well, I guess only time will tell on this global warming thing. Maybe when the water gets up to the street level, or maybe even the second floor offices of Wall Street, maybe people will finally get it. Hindsight is always better than the best research money can buy. No sweat; just be sure your own office is on the second floor or higher and you won’t have to worry about the dissertation research methodology, first floor being immersed. However, as that is’t scheduled to happen for 300 years or so you probably won’t be alive; but your descendents can be left with this valuable advice. With regards to the article and comments made above; the science is by no means complete and final. There are gaping holes in our knowledge of physics; especially pertaining to climate variability resulting from known and unknown precursors and parameters.
One thing is sure we should be grateful for our ocean thermostats that have already indicated the amount of cloud cover and essays of matthew arnold excess rainfall to expect from dissertation less than one degree increase in temperature. Extended Essay? There are known and unknown consequences of global warming, however, the dissertation methodology, runaway greenhouse effect has no chance of becoming a physical reality. Great balls of frozen matter consists the moons orbiting the great planets, and if their orbits are elliptical, they undergo thermodynamic activity. Io, a moon of Jupiter experiences excessive volcanic activity. Comets accelerating unhindered towards the statements for wuthering, Sun all out-gas from their central interior.
The elliptical orbit of the Earth does not deviate much from secondary circular, however and varied by extended definition on hero, the position of Jupiter, there is dissertation methodology secondary, sufficient changes to Earth’s gravity to essays arnold influence the presently unrecognised Gravitational Thermodynamic affect on Earth’s weather. Dissertation Research? According to my 68 year interest in physics, the referred to effect assists to thesis statements for wuthering heights warm the methodology secondary, Earth in summer and assists to cool the Earth in winter. If there is any person with an interest in physics who would be willing to read and comment on essay about, my 160 page work on methodology secondary, Matter and Associated Mysteries, it is available for downloading free at The General Science Journal. It is listed under research paper – Unification Theory. The email address is essay, available below the copyright statement. Good article, giving clear information. Strange to see so many non-sceptics in the comments above, though. Dissertation Research Secondary Data? Is this what it’s like when there are articles about 9/11 and the moon landings ? I suppose this is on criticism, what happens when science fact comes up against peoples’ personal beliefs. Skepticism is at the very heart of the Scientific Enterprise,…Whatever else, AGW believers represent a corruption of the research methodology secondary data, Scientific Enterprise itself…a true tragedy.
I came to quote the bible in an essay Skeptic.com because I thought I would get intelligent debate and comments. Sadly, I was mistaken. The article itself has a lot of good things in it and a lot of methodology secondary data useful information, but the essay, way it’s presented left me feeling disappointed. I can get passionate myself, and sometimes get a little worked up and things don’t come out dissertation data, quite right. It’s ok for me because I’m not publishing data on a scientific website. The comments section of this article leaves a lot to essay prompt for uc be desired. Again, I was hoping for dissertation data intelligent debate and some real answers.. instead what we have here (in large part) is people with their minds already made up, commenting to possible for wuthering heights support their preconceived notions. Weren’t you surprised by the personal attacks and methodology data the disparaging comments made by the author against those who don’t agree with him? “Most of the essay, authors of the editorial were not climate scientists; one of dissertation methodology secondary data two actual climate scientists of the group, Richard Lindzen, is a notorious global warming denier who also denies that smoking causes cancer.” However the “Donald” is NOT a climate scientist either. There ARE however over about, 3000 scientists with PHDs in research secondary data Climatology who have sent a letter to on criticism the UN stating that they do not believe that carbon dioxide causes any warming, and many believe just the opposite; that increased temperatures cause a rise in dissertation research data carbon dioxide.
When we lose the ability to be skeptical, we are no longer doing science, we are practicing religion. hello hello… anybody there. LISTEN UP SO CALLED INTELLEGNSIA , NOBODY CARES . Let me repeat that , NOBODY CARES. Besides what the hell are we suppose to do about human caused global warming WHEN I HAVE KIDS TO FEED AND BILLS Too pay. Oh oh. the oceans are rising. Take a swimming lesson , move or drown. Those are your options, pick one. A Short Essay? Take care eh. You failed to address the crux of the research methodology secondary data, argument from “climate deniers”, that being the fact that ice caps on on hero, other planets are melting: Please explain how my “carbon footprint” is dissertation research methodology secondary, having an effect on Mars.
I don’t agree that climate change on other planets is the “crux” of the objection to AGW. I’d say that the essay nightmare, crux is the dissertation, evidence of low climate sensitivity. I used to read your magazine a while ago. Got bored of the endless line on extended essay, religion, ghosts and the such like. You rarely seemed to dissertation methodology address other areas of science. Much could be said about the essays, book I bought on why people believe strange stuff.
This is the research methodology secondary data, first time Ive read anything, on my increasingly less frequent visits, here. Climate science is a mark on how skeptic and empirical a piece is. The language and one sided nature of this piece basically means to me this is not skeptical at all. Here are some pointers. The climate is the essay for uc, battle ground of skeptical science – lets have a review, unbiased if you can do that. Check out the controversies of the g-spot. Look into the debate of pesticides and research secondary viruses in Bee Keeping. Are polar bears in decline or not. What is the precautionary principle and is it at all relevant to possible heights science. Is there such a thing a sustainability, ie wild fish or farmed fish on your plate. Species extinction.
Where are the facts and where is the field research to back it up. Move on from evolution please. I can’t trust the arguments being expressed here, i.e. in the comments section. Dissertation Methodology Secondary? The intensity is great. The arguments sound reasonable, but I don’t have the time or inclination to research the issues more. I can’t trust my common sense on this one. I have to defer to the “experts” in climatology sciences. But are these commenters here those experts or are they the skeptics? They seem to make sense, but I am always brought back to reality when I think about the debate between the flat earthers vs. the round earthers. I mean, it DOES look flat when you only have human eyes to use, and not telescopes, etc. And it does look like the Sun goes around the Earth by using just my eyes and logic.
But scientists have unique ways of looking into possible for wuthering heights things, and face intense review just to dissertation research methodology secondary get one article published much less many and essay prompt then the majority and then the overwhelming majority of articles about climate. I trust the reliability of the scientific community to test these questions out for me. It would take a very strong counterargument to outweigh that mass of dissertation research secondary data expertese from a topic about which I know little science. I know Prothro’s work. I trust him. I know how right-on he has been in explaining a scientific area of knowledge, i.e. geology and evolution, in extended an evidence-based way. I know how good he has been in seeing the big picture and the science upon which it is dissertation methodology secondary, based. I’ve learned about the scientific method in reading his works about Evolution and Creationism/Inteligent Design.
I have to pinch myself when I read diatribe after diatribe in the bible in an essay these comments about his prejudice and poor understanding and use of the scientific method. Who are these people writting these comments? It raises questions about dissertation research data, them more than about Prothro. They come across as smug and rigid. Darwin had a comment about these kinds of things and for uc people, about the nay-sayers. Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, and not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science. Many of the arguments aren’t even based in factuality, so debate on whether they logically refute anything simply can’t be had as that assumes too much already. Take claims of Antarctica gaining ice (read Velicogna for dissertation research data how Antarctica is *actually* doing, or look up GRACE results); or claims that correlation is only demonstrated here, which ignore literally old-as-evolution science that demonstrates the extended essay on hero, efficacy of CO2 as a greenhouse gas (Tyndall’s work in dissertation research methodology the late 1850s showed this, and our smart missile technology has its foundations in such spectroscopy); or claims of climatic oscillations that would explain internal variability but not the observed increase in heat content in every single store on the planet (IPCC AR4, WGI, Chapter 5, spec. 22.214.171.124); or claims of definition essay chronology with regards to hot houses and snowball Earths (a true skeptic – not a fake skeptic – might learn from Young 2009, published in research Geology (a GSA journal), which correctly delineates the order or events, which was a decrease in CO2 and essay prompt for uc application *THEN* glaciation because lower CO2 + low solar output = glaciation = increased albedo = more glaciation). Really, where can we possibly start in terms of debate if fake skeptics get such basic questions of trend or timeline wrong?
Meanwhile at any scientific convention you go to, nobody is discussing *if* or *why* the Earth is warming. BTW, for all those bashing SkepticalScience and making all of these above exemplified claims, you may want to actually read the articles, they link to the research itself, like they always have. This article seems to dissertation research data have emptied the attic of a lot of bats. I am particularly impressed with the early themes – “if you don’t start publishing things I agree with, I may/ I don’t want to hear form you anymore.” Skeptic has jumped the shark with this embarrassingly bad position. As a statistician, I am convinced the global warming models are overstating the level of essay prompt application AGW by a factor of 3. Show me the secondary, science that supports a positive feedback variable for water vapor such as used in the models. No basis. As the most sensitive variable in the models, this is reprehensible.
Can you clarify something for me? It’s my understanding that climate models are very complex with a myriad of variables; so many variables that many, if not most, have to have values assumed for them in order for the super computers to come up with a conclusion. Is the feedback variable for water vapor one of those? I seem to remember a researcher tweaking a single variable by an insignificant amount resulting in drastically different conclusions. Is that the possible thesis, same effect? Oh dear! It’s a good job that my confirmation bias is justified and yours isn’t. And for what it’s worth – my opinion on AGW being not particularly relevant – rhetoric shouldn’t have any place in a conversation about anything so-called scientific. Must go – time for my medicine. This article is outrageous.
Prothero says, “since 2002, the overall long-term trend of warming is unequivocal.” Go to dissertation research methodology secondary climate4you.com, click on Global Temperature, and scroll down through the numerous graphs from different sources, each showing no warming trend since 2002 (or 2001, 2003, etc). It’s just not true that the on criticism, Earth has warmed since 2002. Unlike the graph Prothero shows, which ends at 2010 ( a year warmed by research methodology secondary data, El Nino ), these graphs extent late into 2012. The Hockey Stick has been thoroughly debunked by tremendous amounts of evidence which suggests that the Earth is currently approximately as warm, or a little less warm, then it was during the Medieval Warming Period. Here are some sources that clearly show that the vast majority of the essay about nightmare, paleoclimatology literature refutes the Hockey Stick: By the way, the research secondary, National Academy of Science even said that it had little confidence in the Hockey Stick. http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=11676. Shame on quote the bible in an essay, Donald Prothero. The hockey stick data has been debunked? Try again:
“Numerous scientific papers, using various statistical methods and secondary data combinations of extended definition proxy records, produced reconstructions broadly similar to the original 1998 hockey-stick graph…The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report cited 14 reconstructions, 10 of which covered 1,000 years or longer, to support its strengthened conclusion that it was likely that Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the 20th century were the highest in at secondary least the past 1,300 years. Eight or more subsequent reconstructions, including Mann et al. 2008, have supported these general conclusions.” Your link to a single 2003 review supporting your claim is old news and proven to be irrelevant via actual scientific research. Try reading the research. Your claim that “the National Academy of essay Science even said that it had little confidence in the Hockey Stick” is cherry-picking at research its finest, and nightmare a gross misinterpretation of research secondary what they actually said if you bothered to click on the link and read it. Here’s the important conclusions you failed to mention: “None of the reconstructions indicates that temperatures were warmer during medieval times than during the past few decades.”
“Surface temperature reconstructions for periods before the extended definition essay, Industrial Revolution — when levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases were much lower — are only dissertation research methodology secondary data one of multiple lines of evidence supporting the conclusion that current warming is occurring in response to thesis statements heights human activities, and they are not the primary evidence.” Shame on someone else. Again, try reading the research. Tragically, the AGW believers are so fanatical that the very data itself can no longer be trusted to be valid. I HAVE JUST PUBLISHED A QUITE DETAILED CRITIQUE OF THIS ARTICLE ON MY BRAND NEW BLOG. Research Methodology? IF YOU WANT TO SEE A DEFENSE OF THE SKEPTICAL POSITION AGAINST PROTHERO’S ARTICLE, PLEASE CHECK IT OUT: And here’s an alternative: Thank you very much for the link to your thoughtful response to Prothero’s essay.
What you don’t address is that the AGW believers are so fanatical that they will alter or change any primary data so that it will support their faith. To be a skeptic means to examine both sides of the argument rationally, without bias, not taking a side until the arguments are made. That was not done here, or the article would provide as evidence the good arguments on both sides and the failed arguments on both sides. In fact, it is essay about, rarely done in any of your articles any longer. Perhaps you should re-examine your mission, because you seem to have forgotten what it means to be a skeptic and instead have become preachers trying to convert unbelievers. Dissertation Methodology Secondary? Isn’t that the antithesis of a skeptic? “Arguments” don’t solve much of about nightmare anything, by themselves, except in philosophy. Evidence and research empirical data are the ultimate judge in scientific debates. Thesis Statements For Wuthering Heights? And no, multiple sides of an dissertation research methodology argument don’t always deserve equal consideration…it depends on the evidence. Logic isn’t always the royal road to truth, see here:
What if some of the AGW scientists are faking data to further a politcal agenda? .Spend some time on a college campus as I do and you may come to see the scientific enterprise itself is in danger of essay being completely politicized by the Left. seriously you might need some help with your paranoia. Methodology Secondary Data? I spend plenty of statements for wuthering time on college campuses (not that it has anything to do with anything), and dissertation research methodology secondary data I don’t see at a short essay on criticism all what you are describing. If someone is faking data, it should be discoverable, not replicable, inconsistent, displaying strange patterns, etc. It’s not unimagineable that it could happen but is dissertation research methodology secondary, a very serious accusation you are making with no apparent evidence in possible thesis for wuthering support, except for the fact that you don’t seem to like their conclusions. All I see in methodology data this article is the same regurgitation of global warming propaganda that the essay for uc application, media uses as talking points and very little science. Everytime I think that the falsified data and research methodology collusion behind it have been put to bed, another media whore like Prothero churns out another article or people like Mann are given another forum to extended definition essay spout their lies and research methodology data half truths giving the hoas yet another lease on life. The Bible In An Essay? I am a professional geologist of research data 32 years of science work experience in a short essay on criticism the environmental and petroleum field. While I might have been inclined to respect Dr.
Prothero’s credentials on their face, I am not some media empty head and don’t get overawed by a large CV especially when it is empty of any real world experience. Dissertation Research Methodology Secondary Data? I do question his motives. He appears to be what I would call a purveyor of “popular” science. A Short On Criticism? What is not stated in research the long list of affilitations, degrees and honors, is the grants he is for uc application, working on and how much money he is currently getting from them. Absent those, I would wonder how much money he makes publishing junk science articles vs the dissertation secondary data, peer reviewed kind. Thesis Statements? My old alma mater much to my shame and chagrin, has forsaken doing any worthwhile studies in traditional geology and sucked up to the federal teat and gone entirely environmental and climate change in order to line thier pockets with grants. I can only dissertation methodology assume that Dr. Prothero is essay nightmare, of the same mind as my old professors. Jumping on the latest fad craze which makes a travesty of real science and defending it to the last in order to eek out the last $$ from it is hardly commendable for a self proclaimed scientist. I think both he and dissertation your magazine have drunk your share of the PC laced coolaid. Can You In An Essay? As a one time subscriber, I am glad that I let my subscription lapse it saved me the trouble of having to cancel it.
Your comment brings up a lot of important points…thank you. So if you are scepetical about AGW you are an anit-science Creationist? This article is full of research methodology data fallacies – observations are not evidence, there is considerable doubt about essay about, recontructions of past temperatures and simply saying “it can’t be anything else” is as feeble an argument as any. In the last few months a number of reconstructions have shown a MWP that is higher than today”s temperatures, and a number of others have shown the appaling manipulation of recent temepratures that have changed the secondary data, raw data into application something unrecognisable. Here’s a question for dissertation research Shermer – why do so many self=proclaimed sceptics (you, Singh, Goldacre) push AGW so hard? Heere’s another – which side of this debate “hides” declines, refuses to publish data, attempts to subvert peer review, tries tos tifel the debate and associate its opponets with holocaust deniers and a short Creationsist? Because whichever side that is, is dissertation research methodology secondary, anti-science and is hiding something.
people need to realize that you give weight to the side backed up by evidence not pseudoscience and pure bs! . the old strawman technique used by possible thesis heights, people who cant understand science here is dissertation research methodology data, pathetic…”its propaganda payed for by the statements, big business” etc….the science stands for itself thats why its backed by the over whelming majority of scientists…. How did we miss this article when it was first published? I would post a reasoned skeptical comment but trying to get the Carbon Cult to look at dissertation research anything that casts doubt on their doomsday religion is utterly pointless. When asked if climate change is definition, real I always answer “I don’t know” because I don’t. In fact I would say no one really knows at this stage, it is extremely complicated and the data isn’t there at the moment. Secondary Data? My biggest concern with the whole argument it the inclusion of emotion. Extended? In the case of this article the author included some scientific data to support his hypothesis but also added a lot of emotional and alarmist comments. For example, at the start when he explains Melting Polar Ice Caps, the very first sentence is ” The polar icecaps are thinning and breaking up at an alarming rate.” I am particularly concerned with the inclusion of the emotional term “at an alarming rate.” This is the authors opinion, is a very relevant term and I believe is used in this case to research secondary scare people into believing his side of the argument. Let’s just keep it to the science and leave philosophy and essays of matthew personal belief out of it, please. “Despite the overwhelming evidence there are many people who remain skeptical.”
Inspired by this site I am going to use my independent judgement to determine truth. Surely if so many people say Global Warming Theory is research methodology secondary, true, it must be. I will not spend my life collecting weather data because the data may lie. I will instead rely on all those people. Yes this is a spoof. I watched “Carbon Nation” this week. Extended Definition? It provides compelling economic and social rationales for research methodology data minimizing our carbon footprint regardless of essays of matthew arnold where you stand on climate change. Ultimately people are moved to dissertation methodology secondary data action by self-interest, not theory. Previous record low for ice extent in the Arctic was in 2007.
4.17 million square kilometeres (1.61 million square miles). Dramatically lower than ever before. On September 17th this year it was measured as 3.41 million square kilometers (1.32 million square miles). Today it is a bit less than that and essay on hero seems to be still dropping. September 2013 UPDATE: ” A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of dissertation methodology secondary data ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per extended definition essay on hero cent.” (The Daily Mail).
I’m am now convinced (after reading the above) the dissertation secondary data, right answer is somewhere in the middle, by that I mean clear and useful understanding of this issue of climate. Statements For Wuthering Heights? Even if there is global warming or not, my position on the matter makes no difference to the planet, believers or deniers. The contradictions abound, emotional claims fly, masking and allusion grow legs and walk all over rationality and civil discussion.. leaving us nowhere for dissertation such a smart primate. If I wrap my mouth around an car exhaust I’m dead, and if I don’t, I stay alive so I know having to much co2 in concentration is not good for my short or long term goals and being forced by science one way or the other is not an option, especially when it comes to prompt application understanding what is really going on and dealing to our planet in a way it deserves. Sad that this piece of dissertation methodology secondary one-sided propaganda filled with ad-hominem attacks should find its way into Skeptics Magazine. No subscription for me, then.
As I was reading this article I almost lost hope and went to quote in an essay the dark side. Even Skeptic magazine believes in dissertation research data global warming, I guess I should too. Then I saw all of the essay nightmare, wonderful comments. The only thing Skeptic is doing right here is keeping moderators out of this forum. Some other sites that claim to promote scientific thinking moderate their forums heavily so as to make it appear there is no argument. I would urge you all to go to richarddawkins.net and argue with the fear mongers there. See how quickly your comments are removed and dissertation methodology secondary your account banned.
Here is a good place to start: http://richarddawkins.net/news_articles/2012/11/4/america-s-theologians-of-climate-science-denial#.UKbEFIZ508E. You are an optimistic soul, Tony. My guess is in essay prompt for uc a few years the comment section will be removed from the Website, probably because it will violate the dissertation research secondary data, Government’s policy of spreading “false and misleading untruths that are intended to undermine the policies of the State”. There is an easy way to determine if this article is any good or not. That is to definition essay on hero count the number of fallacious arguments.
Ideally this number should be zero. Methodology? I counted 9 in on hero the first paragraph. I often wonder why the majority of the ‘debate’ in climate change that remains can be found in the blogs and comments sections of popular magazines and websites, while there is no such level of debate among climate scientists themselves, or in the published literature on this topic – in fact, according to research secondary data all reputable sources, there is massive consensus. Either  There is a conspiracy among scientists to possible statements for wuthering agree with one another or.  The arguments by laymen in dissertation research methodology the blogs are sub-par. You can take your pick – I’m a computer scientist, not a climate one but I know what I’d think if a climatologist started lecturing me on the right way to program a computer. I asked professors at my University about AGW and they were very skeptical, but swore me to secrecy and said what they had told me was “off the record”. A very high level of on hero fear has permeated the professional community…loss of research methodology data grant money if one was labelled a “denier” would be professional death. Climate Science “proof”: “99% of climate scientists agree…”
99% of scientists agreed that Isaac Newton had the possible statements heights, last word on physics. That is, until Einstein proved that wasn’t the case at all. Science isn’t a popularity contest. It progresses by way of dissertation research methodology skepticism and essays open-mindedness, continual research and a realization that extremely complex questions are never settled. “Climate Change skeptics are the same as (Holocaust) deniers.”
That’s a pretty scientific analysis. In other words, don’t engage in debate, let’s just burn the heretics. “Climate Change deniers are as ignorant as those who believe the Earth is flat.” The general shape of the dissertation, Earth is an easy scientific question to answer: take a picture from space. The components determining atmospheric conditions, especially 100 years from now, are not subject to an easy answer. To conflate the two scientific questions indicates the scientific ignorance of essay Climate Change believers. “The majority of peer reviewed recearch shows…” What a surprise. If a climate researcher questions the dogma he is denied funding, publically ridiculed as the evil equivalent of a Holocaust denier or ignorant cousin of a flat Earther, and has his career stopped dead in it’s tracks.
Facing that career prospect is research secondary, it any wonder that the vast majority of climate scientists and their journal peers demonstrate agreement? “If it’s unusually hot, blame it on Global Warming. Statements Heights? If it’s unusually cold, blame it on Climate Change.” In other words, what atmospheric condition CANNOT be pegged to Climate Change? Very scientific. Is climate changing? Maybe. Are humans the primary cause? Maybe. How can we quantify either in an accurate way?
Who knows? The problem is that this area of science has become so distorted by left wing politial pressure that the research is extremely questionable. It’s degenerated from research methodology data real science to pseudo-science or, among its most scientifically ignorant adherents, Global Warming Religon. The loudest voices pushing Climate Change dogma are the essays, ones with the least scientific education. It is their religon. Their logic is as unscientific and dissertation research secondary data their venom is as extremem as ony other type of of matthew religious fanatic.
As someone with a doctorate in dissertation research methodology secondary experimantal science, I’d like to know what the answer to this question is. But the actual scientific process has become so polluted that at statements this point it’s virtually impossible. Thank you for your thoughtful comment. As climate change science has become totally politicized, we must be on guard that the virus of scientific dishonesty does not spread. How to do this? Insist that Skepticism is at the very heart of the Scientific Enterprise and that scientific questions are never “settled science”, to quote Professor of Climate Change (Honorary) Al Gore. No Mr. Fraser, skepticism is NOT at the heart of the scientific enterprise. Research Secondary? Hypothesis testing, systematic observation, controlling variables, data collection, and for wuthering analysis are. You know, the stuff actual climate scientists do. Dissertation Research Secondary Data? http://thoughtsonscienceandpseudoscience.blogspot.com/2012/12/skepticism-is-not-same-thing-as-science.html. Go ahead and read the scientific method.
Skepticism isn’t in there. Skepticism can sometimes help, but it certainly is not the heart of science. Wrong…if people weren’t skeptical then why try to replicate other scientist’s methods and findings…..Climate Science is an extremely complex field is which a huge number of variables, feedforward and feedback pathways, chaotic system events and processes to just name of few are involved. Once the political back drop of the AGW movement is quote the bible in an, understood, why aren’t you more skeptical? So your argument is: climate is dissertation research secondary, complex, and also climate science has become politicized. Any of those points have anything directly to do with climate science or the veracity of their data? Nope. Essay About? Please try reading some science (primary sources).
All the climate change deniers here blabbing endlessly about research methodology, propoganda and saying man-made climate change hasn’t been proven, how the hell would you know? I challenge any one of you to actually read some SCIENCE, directly from the sources (peer-reviewed journal articles), and then come back here with some useful comments that display you understood the journal articles and in an essay can provide a serious review of the data and its analysis. Try to resist the urge to read someone else’s interpretation of it for you…secondary sources don’t count, you’ll have to handle this one on your own, if you can manage to. Good luck, and hope to hear from you soon. Calling someone in a discussion with you who disagrees with your interpretation of scientific findings a “denier” is dissertation research secondary, appalling and possible thesis statements for wuthering has absolutely no place whatsoever in Skeptic Magazine, or any scientific forum….It truly underscores the political nature of the subject matter and the motives of the methodology data, believers.
as long as you call me a “believer” you’re getting called a “denier”…you’ll have to just find some way to deal with it. I’m confused. About? At one point in this article you say that “98% of the scientists who actually do research in climate change are in agreement with anthropogenic global warming” and then later you say “but it doesn’t change the fact that scientists who actually do research in climate change are unanimous in their insistence that anthropogenic global warming is a real threat.” So which is it? What are the similarities and methodology secondary differences between today’s concerns over global warming and the concerns about global cooling that occured in the ’70’s? The similarity is both are driven by Radical Leftists that want to undermine the industrial foundation of the advanced Capitalist societies. The difference is “global warming”, with the purported correlated “damage” done to the Third World (stronger storms, oceans rising), an absolutely huge amount of thesis for wuthering heights money will be taken from the advanced Capitalist societies and “transferred” to the third world dictatorships.
Um, OK Fraser, or how about this: I personally remember the Ice Age predictions back in dissertation research methodology data the 1970’s…How am I paranoid. The politics behind the AGW movement is rather obvious. After all, didn’t the AGW movement get its start with the UN and essay nightmare is driven, at least in the USA, by dissertation methodology data, the Radical Leftists who hate the in an essay, advanced capitalist societies. Are you a “denier”? “Denier”? Isn’t skepticism at the very heart of the Scientific Enterprise? In my opinion, the huge amount of money to be transferred from the research methodology, advanced societies to the third world tribal societies via the UN if “global warming” is confirmed has completely corrupted the definition on hero, scientific study of dissertation research methodology secondary data Earth’s climate change.
It is so intense professor friends of prompt application mine tell me they are afraid to be accused of being a “denier” as this would lead to a loss of all their funding. I have concluded the research methodology secondary, “believers” have corrupted even the data gathering itself and it is not to be trusted. Yeah, this kind of goes against the premise of on criticism scientific debate and skepticism. You’re telling us that CO2 is higher and that the temperature is warmer, yet not proving to us that it is all caused by man. Some of research methodology secondary it doesn’t make logical sense. For instance, I’m a big proponent of the fact that the sun has more to possible for wuthering heights do with global temperature than any other factor. You say that solar output has been decreasing over the past 40 years, and you point to the fact that man-made CO2 emissions have really kicked in methodology secondary data since the industrial revolution some 80 years ago, but then say the drastic warming has been happening for essay prompt for uc application 200 years now. Also, do you have any graphs that show the research, amount of greenhouse gasses caused by man in comparisson to those that are naturally occuring? I’m also skeptical… er, “in denial” about the fact that the essay, amount of human-caused CO2 emissions trumps the amount of dissertation data naturally occuring emissions to the point where it would cause the drastic difference in temperature you’re referring to. And, I don’t like the implication that people who don’t agree with your theory is a “denier.” It sounds like of extended essay on hero backwards… when it comes to UFO’s, you’re a “skeptic,” but when it comes to Global Warming, disbelievers are called “deniers?” You can’t call Global Warming skeptics “skeptics,” because then you’re speaking against the very people your publication is catered towards, so you call us “deniers.” It just seems ridiculous. This is really a disgraceful article.
It is false to assert that there is dissertation methodology data, a wide consensus among reputable scientists that anthropogenic CO2 emissions underlie the very modest increase in average global temperatures (0.6-0.8K) observed over the past century. Given the highly public nature of those who have voiced dissenting opinions, Prothero’s assertion is at best disingenuous, if not frankly deceitful. Any decent person should take great exception to of matthew arnold his characterization of scientists who do dissent. Seeing that Prothero doesn’t hesitate to data descend to personal attacks, I’ll join him in the gutter and observe that Richard Lindzen is a tenured professor holding a named chair at about MIT, one of the world’s pre-eminent academic institutions, as opposed to a scientific non-entity recently retired from the geology department at a piddling, liberal arts school in methodology secondary data LA best known, to the extent it’s known at all, for graduating a handful of hack actors. So now (4/3/13) Skeptic Magazine has packaged Prothero’s Climate Change believer’s credo into a separate publication for prompt application purchase. Yes, it is titled “A Skeptic’s Guide to Global Climate Change”…..Prothero’s a “skeptic”?….the only question left to methodology secondary data answer is what power was brought to bear on the Skeptic Society to essay for uc force it to dissertation methodology commit suicide in front ot its membership?
Real climate history blows a hole in the Mann made change charge that you could drive the planet Saturn through. Prothero needs a new career. While the CO2 evidence is incontrovertible, it’s effect on climate and essay on criticism temperature is certainly not settled science. While it is difficult to methodology secondary data argue that man hasn’t increased CO2 levels, and essay on hero that this hasn’t driven up temperatures, there is still much that isn’t clear. Notably, the mechanisms driving temperature and the earth’s sensitivity to CO2 are not entirely clear. Perhaps more importantly, there’s no clear reason to assume that a temperature increase is “bad” — while it may have large-scale effects, they are unclear. The Renaissance, after all, was at least in part attributable to global warming. Much of the fear is driven by an assumption that “natural” is better and that there is some perfect “balance” which will be disrupted: “the delicate natural balance of carbon dioxide has been thrown out of research methodology whack by our production of too much of it, way in excess of what plants or the oceans can handle.” This should immediately prompt skepticism, as there is no reason to presume this is the case. Can You Quote The Bible Essay? Why was it “in whack” before? Why is “balance” or “nature” inherently better?
Most of research methodology secondary data all, there is very little evidence to show the practicability or efficacy of schemes to remediate global warming. If we were to halve the CO2 output in about the US, the dissertation methodology secondary, effect on global temperature over the next century, even using the most drastic predictions of can you quote warming and dissertation data carbon sensitivity, would be negligible — indeed they would be undetectable. Humans are not about to dismantle our societies and economies because of temperature increases — it will be much easier to adapt. If anything, we will find technological solutions to climate change — Luddism is not the answer. This article should never have been published here — it makes unfounded claims and is based on a premise which should immediately prick up skeptical ears. We are almost surely warming the globe — but it’s far from clear how much, whether it’s even a bad thing, and whether there is anything that can and should be done about it. The article completely misses the of matthew arnold, point, buying into a number of unfounded premises while supposedly making things clearer. Last week two Climate Change “Scientists” posted a picture on the San Jose State University website of them lighting a book arguing against AGW on dissertation data, fire.
It was quickly removed when someone pointed out that burning books is not the best way to get educated people to consider your ideas. What else do you need to know that Believers in AGW faith have nothing to do with the scientific method. At the very least, it sends a clear message to essay about students in their department that data contradicting the research methodology, AGW faith will not be tolerated. Is it possible to be skeptical of these politically biased tirades of having major flaws? (I am not going to do a line by line criteria as to a short essay the truthfulness and empirically correctness of the article nor of the issue at large.) As I was told by dissertation research methodology secondary data, a department chair in a bar in Antarctica decades ago. “Grant money follows a crises. There are too many stinky graphs, too many stilted statistics and too many folks dependent upon “HCGW” to quote the bible not warrant an extremely skeptical examination of the facts. I see none of this in this article. Just more flat earth assumptions, using convenient statistics, to provide another meal on the table. Amazing how the eSkeptic tosses a cynical eye to data any questioning of a particular party (the ones who now are trying to hide deaths in a short essay Benghazi) but accept the same political propaganda as God’s own truth.
So sad. A nice comment, but I believe you’ve overlooked the dissertation methodology, fact that the beginning of the AGW movement is the UN and essay it’s part of a much broader and deeper con than just government grant money going to professors, although that is dissertation methodology data, also an aspect of possible statements heights this movement. From Wikipedia: “The Maunder Minimum coincided with the middle—and coldest part—of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters. A causal connection between low sunspot activity and research methodology data cold winters has recently been made using data from the NASA’s Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment which shows that solar UV output is more variable over the course of the solar cycle than scientists had previously thought, and a UK scientific team published in the Nature Geoscience journal a link that ties this variability to terrestrial climate impacts in the form of can you the bible in an warmer winters in some places and colder winters in others. The winter of 1708–9 was extremely cold.” The author’s sheer credulity in taking Oreskes and Conway’s partisan polemic at face value recalls that of The Skeptical Enquirer in swallowing Academy of Humanism Fellow Carl Sagan’s over the top ‘nuclear winter pitch. Their book calls for more than a little critical inquiry into its sources, methods and political baggage , but none seems on offer here. Assuming anthropogenic warming has been scientifically verified we’re left with the question of what can be done about it. The short answer is “Nothing”! First World nations account for less than 20% of annual carbon emissions and research even the most Draconian government interventions won’t reduce the tonnage to possible statements heights an extent that would impact the rate of global temperature increase in a meaningful way.
With 80% of carbon emissions originating in secondary data China, India and Third World countries you can’t avoid the political reality that environmental concerns will not reduce coal and arnold petroleum use in those regions for research methodology data decades to come. On the nightmare, contrary levels of dissertation research methodology secondary fossil fuel consumption will continue to rise since the nations involved are doing their utmost to grow their economies and increase standards of living. Essay About? With coal and and oil being far and away the cheapest and most readily available sources of energy for them we’re stuck with the old dilemma — Everyone talks about the weather but there’s nothing to be done about it! Whatever your opinion on climate change, it is hilarious and beyond any logic to seriously claim that the net economic incentive is on the side of scientists touting climate change. Fossil fuel companies are the largest, wealthiest corporations on Earth, and research methodology are backed by essays of matthew, governments that subsidize (or even directly run) their activities all over the world. The notion that a few hundred tenured professors and environmental activists are a match to the fossil fuel lobbies is dissertation methodology, totally implausible given the about, funding imbalance. The idea that politicians, who answer first and foremost to those who fund their campaigns, are eager to fight against fossil fuel interests, is even more bizarre.
Not to mention, it is unsupported by actual policy choices, as shown by the fact that global CO2 emissions continue to increase. Just be aware about who has the research methodology secondary, most to lose if AWG is definition essay, real. You don’t have to buy in to it, but you should be cognisant of all the interests at play here. You miss the larger revenue potential of research methodology global warming. With taxes and extended definition on hero controls global warming is the economic weapon underperforming industries. Or a better way to frame it is, If you have a hard time following the inconsistent and dissertation research secondary often conflicting science given against possible statements for wuthering heights, and for global warming, you never have to look far to find someone making a buck. Research Methodology? Solyndra anyone? Global warming is big money now with carbon taxes, EPA restrictions and press accusations it is the governments own personal witch hunt. For Uc? Worse the methods used to determine the validity of the argument are still as bad.
Shall you be killed for floating or drown because you were not a witch? We have not progressed an inch from the days of boogie men and power grabs based on ignorance of fact. I am a climate skeptic seeking to challenge myself by dissertation research secondary, searching for a strong argument for AGW (recommendations welcome) and had high hopes in this article. I can’t say it did anything to convince me. I looked at what I could of the science he presents and found it either to be controversial or unconvincing. Mostly his methods of approach are what I find lacking greatly. I even used Michael Shermer’s “baloney detection kit”: 1. “How reliable is the a short on criticism, source of the methodology secondary data, claim?” Assume the claim is “AGW is of matthew, real.” The source is dissertation research methodology data, Dr.
Prothero. I have no right to quote the bible essay say that he is anything but legit. 1-0-0 for Prothero. 2. “Does the source make similar claims?” Yes -google to confirm. 3. “Have the dissertation research secondary, claims been verified by someone else?”
4. Can You? “Does this fit with the way the dissertation research methodology secondary data, world works?” Yes and no to this one. Yes, insofar as the climate of the world changes, always has, and always will. No insofar the doom-saying is concerned. The Earth has withstood far worse than us and a quick temperature rise. 5. “Has anyone tried to disprove the claim?” 6. “Where does the preponderance of evidence point?”
This one is quote, tough, and I admit to being unqualified to research methodology data answer it, though I’ll take a stab. Definition Essay On Hero? My impression is that there is research, a scientific consensus on the rise of temperature, the rise of CO2, and the human contribution to CO2. What I have yet to find is a convincing argument for thesis statements all the hubbub. Prothero’s article says that doubling the C02 would only raise the avg temperature of the Earth by 1 degree. Not too scary to me. He also says that over the next century sea levels could rise by .8 – 1.3 meters, affecting…basically nothing. And if it rose 6 meters it would start to affect sea-level cities like New Orleans. Wait…so lets convert that back into units of time; Worst case scenario we have 500 years to figure it out? Not too shabby, especially looking at what we’ve accomplished in the last 25 years alone. I’d like to give the point to Prothero on dissertation methodology secondary, the basis of the ACTUAL scientific consensus which is, by my investigation, confirmed by sociological studies.
But I am detecting for baloney after all, and he is clearly ringing alarm bells for which I do not find scientific concordance. Application? Let’s call it a tie. 7. “Is the claimant playing by the rules of science?” Prothero’s article may play by the rules at times, but it unnecessarily slings an awful lot of mud and rings a fair number of alarm bells – which are practices against the rules of science. Let the evidence speak for itself. Dissertation Methodology Secondary? If you break the rules, you get disqualified. 8. “Is the extended definition on hero, claimant providing positive evidence?” There is data, some positive proof for temp rising, and CO2 rising.
The only positive evidence I found for tying humans to climate change was his very brief discussion of isotopic analysis of carbon in the atmosphere. The rest of the article is literally formatted as negative evidence for common skeptic claims. 9. Of Matthew? “Does the new theory account for as many phenomena as the old theory?” There is no old competing theory. 10. Secondary? “Are personal beliefs driving the claim?” So let’s give Prothero all 3 ties – his article is at least 50% baloney. Would you publish 50% baloney? Disappointing and disconcerting. Skeptic?
Seems like this was just a once sided attack. But a little real Skeptical work shows “Since 1983, he has received numerous grants to support his research from the National Science Foundation” I guess it is kind of hard to argue against your funding. Essay Prompt For Uc Application? A little more digging shows he relays on global warming to prove some theories in research methodology data his “award winning” books. Perhaps we could get someone who is essay nightmare, not sleeping with topic to provide some true review of the material? FOX Online: “….CLIMATEGATE II: SCIENTISTS PUSHED TO HIDE DATA – Emails leaked to research methodology the AP show the U.S. and other governments pushed scientists preparing a new UN climate report due out next week to omit or downplay evidence that the prompt, earth’s atmosphere has stopped warming for the past 15 years. From the wire – “Germany called for the reference to the slowdown to be deleted, saying a time span of 10 to methodology 15 years was misleading in the context of climate change, which is essays arnold, measured over decades and centuries. The U.S. also urged the authors to include the ‘leading hypothesis’ that the reduction in dissertation methodology data warming is linked to more heat being transferred to essay for uc application the deep ocean.” Bad timing for new coal regs – The Obama administration is expected today to research announce new climate rules which industry leaders say will cripple the prompt for uc, use of research data coal in America and extended definition essay on hero cause electricity rates to skyrocket.” Science in your inbox every Wednesday! e Skeptic delivers great articles, videos, podcasts, reviews, event announcements, and more to research methodology data your inbox once a week.
Please support the work of the Skeptics Society. Make the world a more rational place and help us defend the role of science in society. The Baloney Detection Kit Sandwich (Infographic) For a class project, a pair of 11th grade physics students created the infographic shown below, inspired by Michael Shermer’s Baloney Detection Kit : a 16-page booklet designed to about hone your critical thinking skills. Science Based Medicine vs. Alternative Medicine. Understanding the difference could save your life! In this superb 10-part video lecture series, Harriet Hall, M.D., contrasts science-based medicine with so-called “complementary and dissertation research secondary alternative” methods. The lectures each range from about nightmare 32 to 45 minutes. Is Terrorism an Existential Threat? This free booklet reveals 10 myths that explain why terrorism is not a threat to our way of dissertation research life or our survival.
Michael Shermer has compiled a list of the top 10 strangest beliefs that he has encountered in his quarter century as a professional skeptic. Who believes them? Why? How can you tell if they’re true? What is a conspiracy theory, why do people believe in them, and why do they tend to prompt proliferate? Why does belief in one conspiracy correlate to belief in others? What are the triggers of dissertation belief, and how does group identity factor into prompt it? How can one tell the difference between a true conspiracy and a false one? The Science Behind Why People See Ghosts. Do you know someone who has had a mind altering experience? If so, you know how compelling they can be.
They are one of the foundations of widespread belief in the paranormal. But as skeptics are well aware, accepting them as reality can be dangerous… Top 10 Myths About Evolution (and how we know it really happened) If humans came from apes, why aren’t apes evolving into humans? Find out in this pamphlet! Learn to do Psychic “Cold Reading” in 10.
Psychic readings and fortunetelling are an ancient art — a combination of acting and psychological manipulation.
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analyzing essay You’ve been staring at dissertation research secondary data, your blank computer screen for what feels like hours, trying to figure out how to start your analytical essay. You try to choose between writing the introduction first or getting right into the meat of possible for wuthering it. But somehow, it seems too difficult to do either. What you need is is a blueprint—a foolproof way to get your essay structured. Then all you have to do is fill in the blanks. Dissertation Research! By Anonymous [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons. What an Analytical Essay Is—And What It Isn’t.
Helpful, right? Um, not so much. First, it might be more useful to explain what an arnold, analytical essay isn’t before getting to what it is . An analytical essay isn’t a summary. Though this may seem obvious in theory, it’s more difficult in secondary, practice. Extended Definition Essay On Hero! If you read your essay and it sounds a lot like a book report, it’s probably only summarizing events or characters. One way to figure out if you’re summarizing instead of analyzing is to look at your support. Are you simply stating what happened, or are you relating it back to your main point? Okay, so what is an dissertation methodology, analytical essay, exactly ? Usually, it’s writing that has a more narrowed focus than a summary. Analytical essays usually concentrate on can you quote in an essay how the book or poem was written—for example, how certain themes present themselves in the story, or how the use of dissertation methodology secondary data metaphor brings a certain meaning to a poem. In short, this type of essay requires you to look at the smaller parts of the work to prompt for uc application help shed light on the larger picture.
An example of a prompt—and the example I’m going to dissertation secondary use for the rest of this post—could be something like: Analyze the theme of thesis statements heights sacrifice in the Harry Potter series. (Note: there might be some spoilers, but I figured everyone who was planning on reading the books has done so already—or at least has seen the movies.) One Way To Form Your Analytical Essay Outline. There are quite a few ways to organize your analytical essay, but no matter how you choose to write it, your essay should always have three main parts: I’ll get into the nitty-gritty of this soon, but for all you visual learners, here is a nice representation of dissertation secondary all the components that make a great analytical essay outline. You can see that I’ve added a few more details than just the introduction, body, and conclusion. But hold your horses—we’re getting to those parts right now. Introduction of possible statements heights Your Analytical Essay Outline.
The purpose of your introduction is to get the reader interested in your analysis. The introduction should include at least three things—a hook, your thesis statement, and a sentence or two describing how you intend to prove your thesis statement. 1. You gotta hook ‘em from the start. The first part of your introduction should draw the reader in. This is called the hook. Secondary Data! The hook should be interesting or surprising. A Short! You can achieve this by dissertation secondary data asking a rhetorical question, giving some relevant statistics, or making a statement that’s unusual or controversial. For my Harry Potter example, I might say, “Since the publication of the first book in the Harry Potter series, Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone , some Christian groups have attacked the books for promoting witchcraft.
However, one of the main themes of the books draws inspiration from of matthew arnold Christianity itself—that of sacrifice.” Okay, so that’s two sentences. But it’s got a little bit of dissertation methodology secondary controversy and relates to what the possible for wuthering, rest of the essay will discuss. 2. Get to research methodology the good stuff—write a killer thesis statement. Prompt For Uc! Okay, so now that you’ve got your reader hooked, you need to start getting to dissertation methodology secondary data the point. This is where the thesis statement comes in.
My thesis might be, “The theme of sacrifice is prevalent throughout the essay, series and is embodied as sacrifice for the greater good, sacrifice for dissertation data, an ultimate gain, and sacrifice to for wuthering heights keep a promise.” 3. It’s time to back up your thesis. Let the reader know how you’re going to prove your claim. For my example, I would let the reader know that I intend to analyze the dissertation methodology data, instances of Harry’s “death,” Voldemort’s sacrifice of his soul in exchange for immortality, and how Snape sacrifices in in an, order to honor a promise made to Lily Potter. These points will be the dissertation research data, building blocks of the body paragraphs. Body of Your Analytical Essay Outline.
The body is where you can start to get really creative and play around with formatting. In the flowchart, there are three body paragraphs. But that’s because I was trained in a short on criticism, the 5-paragraph outline. But you can include as many or as few body paragraphs as you want—as long as you end up thoroughly supporting your thesis. For my outline, each body paragraph includes a topic sentence, followed by secondary data three sets of claims, evidence to support those claims, and how that evidence ties back to the topic sentence.
Again, three is not necessarily a magic number here. Possible Thesis! You could make one claim with a lot of evidence, or five claims to support your topic sentence. But let’s get into it, shall we? 1. Develop a strong topic sentence. Methodology! Each topic sentence in each body paragraph of your analytical essay outline should tell the reader exactly what that section is going to be about. My first body paragraph might start with, “Harry Potter is willing to fulfill prophecy and make the ultimate sacrifice—that of his life—in order to save the rest of the wizarding world.” 2. Essay! Make your claim. Dissertation Research Methodology Data! The claim should dive into a smaller part of the essays of matthew, overarching topic sentence. Dissertation! The topic sentence I gave can be broken down into several smaller claims—that Harry knew that he was fulfilling prophecy, that he was actually willing to die, and that his death would be of profound significance. Essays! 3. Provide evidence from the text to back your claim. You can’t just go around making claims without any support. You can use quotes or paraphrase parts of the text to add evidence.
For evidence that Harry knew that he was fulfilling prophecy, you could cite the instance in the hall of prophecies with the quote, “and either must die at the hand of the other for neither can live while the other survives.” 4. Tie that evidence to the topic sentence. You have to make it absolutely clear why you included the research methodology secondary, evidence. If you don’t, your analytical essay runs the risk of being a summary. For example, with the citing of the prophecy, I would tell the reader that Harry and his friends found said prophecy and can you in an essay figured out that it had to be about him (although there are objections that it could’ve been referring to Neville, but we’ll leave that out of this example). They knew that either Voldemort had to die or Harry did, and he had to be willing to do that. They’re not needed in the outline, but when you write your final essay, be sure you include effective transitions. This will help your essay flow. Conclusion of Your Analytical Essay Outline. After you’ve built up all of your body paragraphs, given the appropriate evidence to back your claims, and tied that evidence to your awesome topic sentences, you’re ready to wrap it all up.
The conclusion should be a brief restatement of your main points without being a direct copy. Research Methodology Data! For example, “There are many motivations behind sacrifice—to help others, to help oneself, or to keep a promise to a loved one—and J.K. Rowling explores several of statements for wuthering heights them through the characters in the Harry Potter book series.” This, of research secondary course, does not suffice as a full conclusion. To fill it out and give the reader a sense of closure, you can relate the theme to the real world or end with a final quote from the text or the author. Essay! Use This Downloadable Analytical Essay Outline as a Guide.
Easy, right? I know you’re pumped to get started, but before you do, I have a template for dissertation research methodology secondary, the analytical essay outline for you to a short essay on criticism download. Of course, your instructor’s directions will trump mine, so if they say to do something a specific way, I won’t be offended if you take their advice over mine. And don’t forget about the Kibin editors. When your analytical essay is all typed up, they can help you make sure that it’s as good as it can get. Psst. 98% of Kibin users report better grades!
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Starting is definitely the hardest part sometimes :/ thanks so much for your blog. you have made it very easy for dissertation methodology secondary data, me to essay prompt for uc understand this (horrible) essay. I have to dissertation research methodology secondary data write my first Analytical essay. kind regards to you. And thanks to you for reading! Good luck with your essay #8212; you#8217;ve got this. Essays! I have to write an analytical essay for research methodology data, my college English course, and arnold its about an American folk song called #8220;Frankie and research methodology Johnny#8221; and im stuck in quote in an, how to dissertation secondary begin it! my professor gave me an example on how to arnold start, she said #8220;to summarize a short definition of dissertation methodology North American folk music from Oxford Music Online#8221; please help. A definition is one way to start your essay, sure! This post contains lots more great advice (plus you can sign up for 14 hook types + examples in the bottom right corner): https://www.kibin.com/essay-writing-blog/good-hook-sentences/ Damn am I thirsty, any fine white beothches dtf. NAH MEAN. Thank you so much.
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concluding a paper Generics and Biosimilars Initiative Journal (GaBI Journal). 2013;2(4):173-7. When an innovative biological product goes off-patent, biopharmaceutical or biotechnological companies may file an application for regulatory approval of biosimilar products. In practice, however, important information on the innovative (reference) product may not be available for assessment. Thus, it is important to first establish a reference standard while assessing biosimilarity between a biosimilar product and the reference product. In this paper, reference standard is established through the biosimilarity index approach based on a reference-replicated study (or R-R study), in which the reference product is compared with itself under various scenarios.
The reference standard can then be used for assessing the degree of similarity between the test and reference drugs in dissertation methodology, biosimilar studies. Submitted: 24 April 2013; Revised: 10 June 2013; Accepted: 8 July 2013; Published online first: 31 July 2013. A biosimilar product is defined as a biological drug product that is highly similar to the reference product notwithstanding minor differences in essay on criticism, clinically inactive components. No clinically meaningful differences exist in terms of safety, purity, and potency (Biologics Price Competition and Innovation [BPCI] Act 2009). In the BPCI Act, however, how ‘similar’ is considered ‘highly similar’ has not been addressed. The BPCI Act as part of the Affordable Care Act was signed into law in March 2010.
It gave FDA the authority to approve similar biological drug products. Research Methodology! Currently, FDA has not set out clear standards for biosimilar approvals . Kang and Chow  proposed a method that uses the relative difference, i.e. the difference between test (T) and heights, reference (R) products compared with the difference between R and R as the primary measure for assessing biosimilarity. As a result, the difference between R and R is important, as it serves as the reference standard for comparison. In practice, important information such as variabilities in dissertation research secondary data, pharmacokinetic parameters of the reference product may not be accessible to the biosimilar manufacturers as they are proprietary knowledge. Thus, it is important to conduct a reference-replicated study (R-R study), i.e. a study in which the reference product is compared with itself, to obtain this information. As biosimilar products are made by on criticism, living cells or organisms that are sensitive to dissertation methodology small changes or variations in environmental factors, such as light or temperature, it is expected that a small difference will occur between two reference products resulting from different manufacturing processes or locations, or different batches from the essay, same manufacturing process. The R-R study will provide the dissertation research data, information on a short essay, variability associated with the dissertation research, reference product, and also establish a baseline, i.e. similarity between R and R, for comparison in can you in an essay, biosimilarity testing. The biosimilarity index approach was proposed by Chow et al. [3, 4] to assess the level of similarity. The index is dissertation methodology data based on the concept of a short, reproducibility probability and is evaluated as the estimated power of the dissertation research data, testing procedure when the alternative hypothesis is true.
This approach has been shown to be robust to the study endpoints, criteria and study designs. Thus, in this paper, we have chosen to establish the essay, reference standards in the framework of this biosimilarity index approach. In the next section, the study design and statistical model used for the R-R study are described. In Section 3, biosimilar index based on reproducibility probability is introduced. In Section 4, the statistical properties of the methodology, reference standards are discussed through simulation studies. Of Matthew! We provide some concluding remarks and recommendations in the last section. Study design and statistical model. Crossover designs are often recommended for bioequivalence studies. Biosimilarity is often assessed in a parallel design in dissertation, practice [ 5 ], however, because of the relatively long half-life and the possibility of immunogenicity of biological products, concerns are increasing over interchangeability in biosimilars, which can only be assessed in crossover designs.
Thus, we have chosen a standard two-sequence, two-period (2 ? 2) crossover design for the establishment of reference standards. A 2 ? 2 crossover study can be viewed as a two-arm parallel study with replicates; the advantage of extended definition on hero, using a crossover design is that the intra-subject variability could be estimated for the reference standards. In a 2 ? 2 standard crossover study design, participants are randomly assigned to research secondary either sequence 1 (R 1 R 2 ) or sequence 2 (R 2 R 1 ) in the R-R study. For sequence 1, participants are first treated with R 1 and, after a sufficient washout period, are treated with R 2 ; for sequence 2, participants are first treated with R 2 and then with R 1 . As mentioned, R 1 and R 2 could be two different batches of the on criticism, reference drug or drugs from different locations such as the US and EU. The interval hypotheses of the similarity testing written in terms of parameters are: where ? is the study parameter chosen to assess biosimilarity; ? L and dissertation research data, ? U are the biosimilarity limits, i.e. the accepted lower and upper bounds for essay on hero declaring biosimilarity. In bioequivalence assessment for generic drug products, average bioequivalence criterion chooses ? as the dissertation research secondary data, ratio of the geometric means between reference and test products; and the corresponding limits are set to be 80% and 125%. The hypotheses in essays arnold, equation (1) are usually decomposed into two sets of one-sided hypotheses: Schuirmann’s two one-sided tests procedure is commonly used for testing the hypotheses in equation (2) . The overall p value is the research methodology secondary, larger of the p values from these two tests. For a standard 2 x 2 crossover study design, we consider the definition, following statistical model with the assumption of no carryover effects: where Y ijk is the response for subject i in the kth sequence at dissertation methodology secondary the jth period, where i = 1, … , n k indicates subject, j = 1, 2 indicates period, k = 1, 2 indicates sequence; µ represents the overall mean; S ik represents the random effect of extended definition essay, ith subject in kth sequence, assumed independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) as N(0, s s2 ); P j is the period effect; T (j,k) represents the fixed effect of the treatment in the kth sequence administered at the jth period; e ijk is the dissertation, within-subject random error, assumed i.i.d. as N(0, s e2 ). Finally S ik ’s and essays, e ijk ’s are assumed to secondary be mutually independent. To establish the reference standards, we have chosen the essays, average biosimilarity criterion, i.e. ? = µ R2 – µ R1 . One concludes average biosimilarity if.
where and are the least square means for the two reference products; they can be obtained from the sequence-by-period means: and dissertation methodology, ; n 1 and n 2 are the essay, number of dissertation methodology secondary data, subjects in sequence 1 and sequence 2; is the a short essay, pooled sample variance of period difference from both sequences, and can be obtained from , where . To reflect the dissertation research methodology secondary data, characteristics and effect of can you quote, variability on the therapeutic effect of biological products, Chow et al. [ 3 , 4 ] in research methodology secondary, 2011 proposed the development of an index based on the concept of the essays of matthew arnold, reproducibility probability to assess ‘highly biosimilar’. Reproducibility probability in clinical trials was first proposed in 2002 by Shao and Chow  to dissertation research secondary data provide assessment on the strength of evidence against null hypothesis for regulatory agencies in deciding whether a single clinical trial is sufficient for thesis for wuthering approval. Reproducibility probability addresses the question of whether the observed significant result from a clinical trial is reproducible. Dissertation Data! Following a similar idea, a biosimilarity index was developed based on the reproducibility probability for the interval hypotheses in equation (2) to evaluate the degree of similarity between two drug products. That is, we define a reproducibility probability for evaluating the biosimilarity of two drug products as follows: P BI = concluding average biosimilarity between two products in a future trial given that the average biosimilarity based on a chosen criterion has been established in the first trial. To evaluate the biosimilarity index, the index is expressed as the essay on criticism, estimated power of the testing procedure when the alternative hypothesis is true, replacing the parameter by dissertation research methodology secondary data, its estimate based on arnold, the data observed. By this estimated power approach, the biosimilarity index for dissertation methodology the 2 ? 2 crossover design and average biosimilarity criterion can be obtained from the following equation: where T L and T U are the test statistics given in equation (4) and equation (5). Both T L and T U follow non-central t-distribution, with n 1 + n 2 – 2 degree of freedom and non-centrality parameters d L and d U , respectively. Essay Prompt For Uc! d L and d U relate to the population means, variances and similarity limits; their estimate and research methodology secondary data, can be obtained from the data using the formulas and. To apply the proposed biosimilarity index approach to assess biosimilarity, Chow et al. in 2013 proposed the essays, following steps [ 8 ], see Table 1 . To establish p 0 , we recommend it be based on p RR , the biosimilarity index obtained in an R-R study.
By basing p 0 on p RR , the dissertation data, biosimilarity index approach allows us to assess the degree of similarity relative to the reference product. From the definition of the biosimilarity index and the testing steps illustrated above, we can see that this approach has the following advantages. First, it is on criticism robust with respect to the selected study endpoints, biosimilarity criteria, and study designs [ 7 ], because the biosimilarity index used in the second stage of testing ‘highly similar’ is calculated using the same selected study endpoint, biosimilarity criterion, and study design. Second, it takes variability into consideration in dissertation research methodology secondary, the calculation of the index, and is sensitive to the variance of the test products. Third, it allows the a short on criticism, definition and assessment of the degree of similarity. Or, in other words, it provides an answer to the question of ‘how similar is dissertation research secondary considered highly similar?’ In practice, important information about the innovative (reference) product may not be available for assessment. Thus, it is important to establish the reference standard (p 0 ) while assessing biosimilarity between a biosimilar and the reference product. In this section, we set out to essays of matthew arnold conduct simulation studies to research methodology secondary establish reference standards under various scenarios. Simulation studies were conducted to the bible demonstrate how to establish reference standards.
Standard 2 ? 2 crossover design and average biosimilarity criterion are used. Research Secondary Data! The biosimilarity index is calculated as the steps outlined in section 3. The study parameter ? is the mean difference, i.e. ? = µ R2 – µ R1 , and the corresponding similarity limits are those accepted in bioequivalence studies, i.e. (? L , ? U ) = (log0.8, log1.25) = (-0.223, 0.223). The data are assumed to can you quote the bible in an following normal distribution, and the means and methodology data, variances of the two reference products are assumed to be the same in the simulation, i.e. µ R1 = µ R2 = µ and s R1 = s R2 = s. To evaluate how reference standards are affected by variability of the drug products, different coefficients of variation are chosen: 20–50% by an increment of 5%. Note that coefficients of variation is the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean, therefore in terms of s and µ in the normal distribution, the chosen coefficients of variation values translate to s = 0.2µ, 0.25µ, 0.3µ, 0.35µ, 0.4µ, 0.45µ or 0.5µ. In bioequivalence studies, it is recommended that data are first log-transformed. For lognormal distribution, coefficients of variation of 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45% and 50% translate to s = 0.2, 0.25, 0.294, 0.340, 0.385, 0.429 and 0.472 ( ). We have chosen µ = 1 so that the results are comparable with those shown in original scales in bioequivalence studies. The effects of possible for wuthering, different sample sizes (n = n 1 + n 2 = 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100) with equal allocation are also investigated.
A total of 1,000 random trials are generated for each parameter combinations. The percentage of trials that have passed the Step 1 biosimilarity test, i.e. the probability of claiming biosimilarity on the basis of the average biosimilarity criterion, are shown in Table 2 and Figure 1. The results are in secondary data, accordance with results observed in other studies . As the variability increases, the possible thesis heights, probability decreases. Even with no mean difference between the two drug products, the secondary, probability of concluding biosimilarity can be quite low when the coefficients of variation are high. For example, when the coefficients of extended essay on hero, variation is 50%, with a total sample size of 40, biosimilarity is concluded only about 30% of the times. The probability of concluding biosimilarity can be boosted by increasing sample size. In the previous scenario, the probability can be increased from dissertation secondary data 30% to 86% if a sample size of 100 is used instead of 40.
For those trials that have passed the Step 1 test, the p values from the Schuirmann’s two one-sided tests procedure are recorded and essays, the averages are reported in Table 3 and methodology secondary data, Figure 2. As the variability increases, the p values also increase, becoming close to 0.05. In other words, as the variability increases, the evidence against null hypotheses weakens. For those trials that have passed the Step 1 test, we further report in Table 4 and Figure 3 the reproducibility probability or biosimilarity index, termed p RR in R–R study. The p RR is calculated from equation (6). As expected, the results show that the p RR increases as the sample size increases, and about, it decreases as variability increases. Notice that when the research methodology data, coefficients of variation are 45%, and essay, the total sample size is research secondary 40, the p RR is possible thesis statements for wuthering heights only 48.5%.
When a reference drug compared with itself can only have a 48.5% reproducibility probability, it is superfluous to follow the same study design to demonstrate that a ‘follow-on biologic’ is highly similar to this reference. There are two ways to correct a low p RR : one is to choose a different criterion as in bioequivalence studies with the use of dissertation methodology data, a scaled criterion; the other is to increase sample size. This also demonstrates the importance of conducting an R–R study: one is able to can you the bible essay choose an methodology secondary appropriate criterion, sample size, or both, to establish reference standards. As shown above in the simulation studies, as coefficients of variation increase, it is less likely that similarity can be declared even when R is compared with R. To further illustrate the effect of the essay application, high variability on the conclusion of biosimilarity, and how the biosimilarity index addresses the degree of research methodology, similarity, we consider example data with a total sample size of 40 and coefficients of variation of 45%, again assuming no true mean difference. First, we obtain an example where H 0 is not rejected and give the sample means in Table 5. The observed mean difference and the observed variability . Essay For Uc Application! The 90% confidence interval of the mean difference is (-0.065, 0.327); similarity is dissertation research secondary data not declared. Under the same setting, another set of data is generated. Quote The Bible In An! Under this scenario, we observe that R 1 and dissertation methodology data, R 2 are not identical yet similarity is declared. The sample means are given in Table 6, from which we could calculate the sample mean difference and essays, the variability . Research Methodology Secondary! From the observed mean difference and variability, the a short essay, p RR as evaluated from equation (6) is 0.563.
This example shows that when coefficients of variation is dissertation research secondary high, even though biosimilarity is declared based on the average similarity criterion, the degree of similarity as measured by biosimilarity index is low, so is the possible thesis statements heights, confidence that we have in the biosimilarity conclusion. The simulation studies have shown that, as variance increases, the probability of declaring biosimilarity in the Step 1 test decreases; and, for those trials that pass the Step 1 test, the methodology secondary, degree of similarity, quantified by biosimilarity index, decreases. The biosimilarity index is calculated for the trials that have passed the Step 1 test, thus it reflects the characteristics of the biological products that have already been declared biosimilar based on the average biosimilarity criterion. To apply the biosimilar index approach, an appropriate p 0 , see Table 1 for details of Step 3 in the testing procedure, needs to be determined. Possible Thesis Statements For Wuthering! We recommend p 0 = 0.7p RR or 0.8p RR, such that the research secondary data, comparison is relative to the reference products. If we define d = p 0 /p RR , then d can be used to address the essay on criticism, degree of similarity and the question of ‘how similar is highly similar?’ Thus, it is important to obtain reference standards because it establishes the dissertation methodology, baseline for testing biosimilar products.
In this paper, we show that an of matthew arnold R-R study is conducted separately to obtain reference standards. Dissertation Research Secondary! Reference standards can also be established concurrently using the three-arm study as proposed by Kang and Chow . In the three-arm study, participants are randomly assigned to arnold be treated with either test product (T) in one arm, or two different reference products (R 1 , R 2 ) in the other two arms, such that reference standards are established concurrently in research, the two reference arms and used as baseline for the test product. The idea as outlined in this paper can be applied to establish reference standards for biosimilarity index developed based on other criteria for the assessment of can you the bible, biosimilarity. For example, a biosimilarity index may be developed based on the concepts of population bioequivalence or individual bioequivalence.
Another important concept in biosimilarity studies is interchangeability. To assess interchangeability, it needs to be shown that the risk, i.e. safety or diminished efficacy of dissertation research data, alternating or switching between use of the biosimilar and the reference product, are not greater than the risk of using the reference product without such alternation or switch. The same idea could be followed to establish reference standards to extended definition be used as the baseline for the assessment of interchangeability. This work was partially supported by National Institutes of Health grants P01 CA142538 to Associate Professor Jung-Ying Tzeng. Provenance and peer review: Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed. Associate Professor Jung-Ying Tzeng, Department of Statistics and Bioinformatics Research Center, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27607, USA. Professor Shein-Chung Chow, Professor of dissertation research methodology data, Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Department of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, Duke University School of Medicine, Suite 1102, Hock Plaza, 2424 Erwin Road, Durham, NC 27705, USA. 1. U.S. Food and extended essay, Drug Administration.
Draft guidance for industry. Scientific considerations in demonstrating biosimilarity to a reference product [homepage on the Internet]. 2012 Feb [cited 2013 Jun 10]. Available from: http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/UCM291128.pdf. 2. Dissertation Methodology Data! Kang SH, Chow SC. Statistical assessment of biosimilarity based on essays of matthew arnold, relative distance between follow-on biologics. Stat Med. Secondary Data! 2013;32(3):382-92. 3. Chow SC, Endreny L, Lachenbruch PA, Yang LY, Chi E. Scientific factors for assessing biosimilarity and drug interchangeability of follow-on biologics. Biosimilars.
2011;1:13-26. 4. Essays Of Matthew Arnold! Chow SC, Ju C. Assessing biosimilarity and interchangeability of biosimilar products under the research data, Biologics Price Competition and Innovation Act. Generics and Biosimilars Initiative Journal (GaBI Journal). 2013;2(1):20-5. doi:10.5639/gabij.2013.0201.004. 5. Hsieh TV, Chow SC, Yang LY, Chi E. The evaluation of biosimilarity index based on reproducibility probability for assessing follow-on biologics. Stat Med. 2013;32(3):406-13. 6. Schuirmann DJ. A comparison of the two one-sided tests procedure and the power approach for assessing the a short essay, equivalence of secondary data, average bioavailability. J Pharmacokinet Biopharm.
1987;15(6):657-80. 7. Shao J, Chow SC. Reproducibility probability in clinical trials. Stat Med. 2002; 21(12):1727-42. 8. Chow SC, Yang LY, Starr A, Chiu ST. Statistical methods for assessing interchangeability of biosimilars. Stat Med. 2013;32(3):442-8. 9. Chow SC, Liu PB.
Design and analysis of bioavailability and bioequivalence studies. 3rd ed. New York: Taylor and Francis; 2008. Author for correspondence: Aijing Zhang, PhD, 5109 SAS Hall, 2311 Stinson Drive, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA. Disclosure of Conflict of Interest Statement is a short on criticism available upon methodology secondary data request. Copyright © 2013 Pro Pharma Communications International. Permission granted to reproduce for personal and non-commercial use only. All other reproduction, copy or reprinting of all or part of any ‘Content’ found on essay application, this website is strictly prohibited without the prior consent of the publisher.
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